Donald Trump Hits Record Low in Poll Weeks Before Midterm: CNN Analyst

CNN data analyst Harry Enten said Donald Trump's net approval rating in the Reuters/Ipsos poll has fallen to minus 35, the worst he has ever been in that survey.

Enten made the remarks in a clip posted by independent journalist Aaron Rupar. He said Trump had started his second term at plus six in the same survey, and he called the slide "a five-alarm Trumpster fire."

"We're talking negative 35 points the worst he has ever been in the Reuters Ipsos poll," Enten said. Among independents, he said, Trump is 54 points underwater.

What the Reuters/Ipsos Poll Shows

Enten put Trump's net approval in the Reuters/Ipsos poll at minus 35 and said it is the lowest he has been in that survey.

The starting point was much higher. A Reuters/Ipsos poll taken Jan. 20-21, 2025, right after his second inauguration, found 47 percent approved, with independents split 44 percent to 45 percent.

Harry Enten's 'Four Worst' Claim

Enten was not talking about polling averages. He was talking about individual polls taken in the October before a midterm election, a ranking he said came from his own digging through the data sets.

"Is this some kind of anomaly? It is not some type of anomaly," he said. Of the worst such readings ever, he added, "the top four spots for the worst are all occupied by a very similar looking gentleman."

Enten said each of the four polls has Trump at least 31 points underwater:

• Reuters/Ipsos: net minus 35, according to Enten
• Pew Research Center: at least 31 points underwater, according to Enten
• ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos: 33 percent approve, 66 percent disapprove, net minus 33
• NBC News: 34 percent approve, 66 percent disapprove among adults, net minus 32. NBC's is a Decision Desk poll, a different kind of survey from the others.

The two published figures that can be checked directly, from ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos and NBC News, both put Trump more than 30 points underwater, consistent with Enten's threshold. The Reuters/Ipsos and Pew figures, and the ranking against past presidents, are Enten's.

Those individual surveys run well below the broader picture. PolitiKool's polling average puts Trump at 37.8 percent approve and 59.3 percent disapprove, a net of minus 21.5, and PolitiKool's generic ballot average gives Democrats an 8.3-point lead.

The Harry Truman Comparison

Enten said the previous worst October reading belonged to Harry S. Truman, "Who is 30 points underwater," and that Trump's numbers now exceed it.

Gallup put Truman's approval at 33 percent heading into the 1946 midterms, when Democrats lost 55 House seats. That is an approval share, while Enten's 30 points is a net figure, so the two numbers are not directly comparable.

Asked what has happened to presidents with that kind of approval, Enten pointed to Truman and George W. Bush in 2006. By Enten's characterization, the closest comparisons are presidents at net approval of minus 15 or worse, and he said the parties of both men lost the House and the Senate. The net-approval figures are his; the sources cited here do not report them. Gallup measured Bush at 38 percent that fall, when Republicans lost 30 House seats.

"The Republican Party is not gonna like because Trump's historically low approval rating at this point below a midterm At least historically has brought not just the president down, but the house and Senate control with it," Enten said.

What Happens Next

The Senate map remains a toss-up, with seven races rated as such. Whether Trump's record lows in individual polls carry over into those contests will be settled on Nov. 3.