Fox Poll: 62% Call Groceries a 'Major Problem' as Pollster Warns GOP

Republicans would not want the midterm elections held today, pollster Mark Penn told Fox News host Brian Kilmeade on Sunday, as a new Fox News poll shows 62 percent of voters calling grocery prices a "major problem" for their family and the cost of living dwarfing every other concern.

The Fox News poll, conducted Sept. 11-14 among 1,211 registered voters and released Wednesday, found Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot 51 percent to 44 percent. Sixty-three percent of voters said the Trump administration has made the economy worse, and just 24 percent approved of President Donald Trump's handling of inflation.

Kilmeade, host of One Nation, introduced Penn, the Stagwell chairman who co-directs the Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll, noting he "has spent a lot of years with the Clintons, but just calls him as he sees it," then asked Penn whether a midterm held today would spell disaster for Republicans.

"This would not be a good day for the Republicans to have the midterms," Penn said.

Fox News Poll Shows Gas Prices Catching Up to Groceries

Kilmeade told viewers that "a Fox News poll is showing the cost of living remains the top issue for you." The poll's topline shows a mixed picture: compared with the last election cycle, gas has overtaken groceries as the fastest-growing complaint, while most measures have moved little since April.

Grocery prices remain the most widely cited squeeze, with 62 percent calling them a major problem, unchanged from April and down from 66 percent in September 2024. Gas prices moved the other way, with 61 percent now calling them a major problem, up from 48 percent in September 2024 and nearly double the 33 percent of a year ago, though essentially flat since April's 60 percent. Health care costs, at 52 percent, are up from 44 percent in May 2024 but down from 55 percent in April. Housing costs, at 54 percent, are below the 60 percent recorded in September 2024 but up slightly from 52 percent in April.

Asked without a list to name the most important issue facing the country, 34 percent of voters said cost of living or inflation and 14 percent said the economy or jobs. Voters preferred Democrats over Republicans on inflation and prices by 55 percent to 40 percent. Daron Shaw, the Republican pollster who conducts the survey with Democrat Chris Anderson, wrote in the Fox News release: "Time is running out for the administration and its supporters to convince voters that things are improving."

Penn Says Republicans Have 44 Days to Sell 'Stewardship'

Penn argued the party still has a case to make before Nov. 3. "I think they have 44 days left to generate some momentum, to get their message out ... it's better to let the stewardship of the economy stay with Trump and the Republicans than to have complete national gridlock investigations and a complete do-nothing Congress, which would result in a split Congress at this point," Penn said. "So I think they've got some good powerful messages they could get out there, but I wouldn't want to hold that election today."

He said the race has become a turnout contest rather than a fight for swing voters. "Now, the biggest turnout engine in the country is President Trump. He is a turnout machine and he is on the road really working to turn out the Republican base, which is the job that he can do," Penn said.

Can Iran Offset the Cost-of-Living Drag?

Kilmeade suggested foreign policy could change the trajectory. "I tell you, the magic bullet would be pun intended, Iran. If that economic stranglehold results in the overturning of that government where the people rise up and take their country back, that would be a game changer," he said, adding that lower gas prices "might give people a sense of what could happen if you keep the same person behind the wheel."

Penn offered what he called a "slightly counterintuitive view" of the conflict. "I believe that the stronger the president seems, the more actually he brings more voters out to support America versus Iran," he said. "And the more we're in a kind of fuzzy-wuzzy negotiation, halfway measure, higher energy prices, but we're not really winning or losing, the more I think that really it's not an issue that works as strongly for a leader when the leader is leading the country in a clear and definite direction."

Penn's theory faces a difficult test in the same Fox News survey: 60 percent of voters said the U.S. made the wrong decision in taking military action against Iran, and 77 percent of that group favored the Democratic candidate in their district. Trump's approval on foreign policy stood at 37 percent in the same poll.

An NBC News poll conducted Sept. 11-15 found 62 percent of registered voters said the war was not worth it, and 57 percent said they were less likely to support candidates who backed it. Penn's own Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll, taken Aug. 28-30, put Trump's approval at 44 percent. It showed Democrats leading the generic ballot 51 percent to 49 percent among registered voters, with Republicans ahead by the same two-point margin among likely midterm voters, though 53 percent opposed his handling of the Iran conflict and only 43 percent believed the U.S. was winning it.

Where the Broader Polling Stands

The Fox News poll's overall Trump numbers, 39 percent approve and 61 percent disapprove, are in line with the broader consensus. PolitiKool's polling average puts his approval at 38.9 percent and disapproval at 58.2 percent, a net rating of minus 19.3. On the generic congressional ballot, PolitiKool's polling average gives Democrats 48.2 percent to Republicans' 41.5 percent, a 6.7-point margin, compared with the 7-point Democratic lead in the Fox News poll.

What Happens Next

Before introducing Penn, Kilmeade had already framed the segment around whether Republicans could "close that gap in the final stretch and buck history, being that they're in power and this is a midterm." Trump has two foreign-policy stages ahead this week: a summit in Washington with Chinese President Xi Jinping and meetings with Gulf leaders at the United Nations General Assembly. Whether either moves the cost-of-living numbers in the Fox News poll is the question Republicans have until Election Day, Nov. 3, to answer.