Karl Rove Tells Brian Kilmeade Texas Map Likely Nets GOP Three Seats, Maybe Four

Karl Rove, the Republican strategist who served as a senior adviser and deputy chief of staff to President George W. Bush, said Sunday that his party's mid-decade redraw of the Texas congressional map will most likely deliver three of the five House seats it was built to flip. He said four is possible.

The forecast comes from one of the best-known strategists in Texas Republican politics, nine days before the November 3 midterms. Texas Republicans redrew the map with the goal of picking up five seats to protect a narrow House majority. Democrats now lead PolitiKool's polling average of the generic congressional ballot 48.9 percent to 40.4 percent.

"They're likely to end up with three. They could end up with four, but there was such enthusiasm. We've got five seats, but these are difficult seats," Rove told Brian Kilmeade on Fox News' One Nation.

Karl Rove on the Texas Districts Republicans Redrew

Rove started with the 9th District, east and northeast of Houston, where Republican Alex Mealer faces Democrat Leticia Gutierrez. He called Mealer "a terrific candidate" but said "the district is 62% nonwhite, and virtually all Hispanic of that 62%."

"So, you know, it's not easy territory," he said.

Mealer ran for Harris County judge in 2022 and narrowly lost to Democrat Lina Hidalgo. The new 9th backed Trump by about 20 points in 2024, according to the Texas Tribune. Even so, a recent poll put Mealer only six points ahead, Texas Public Radio reported.

In the 15th District, Rove was careful not to count Republican Rep.

"Well, I don't want to say in trouble. She's got a tough race on her hands," Rove said, adding that Pulido "has been able to raise a lot of money." The Cook Political Report moved the race to Toss Up. The district is about 81 percent Hispanic and voted for Trump by roughly 18 points, Texas Public Radio reported.

Rove Discloses Fundraiser for Eric Flores

In the 34th District, Rove opened with a disclosure. "Well, first of all, full disclosure, I hosted a fundraiser for Eric Flores," he said of the Republican challenging Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez.

He said Flores, a former federal prosecutor, is "gonna give Gonzalez a run for his money. I hope he wins." He also called the area "a district that's historically Democrat." The redrawn 34th would have voted for Trump 54.7 percent to 44.5 percent, a margin of about 10 points, according to Ballotpedia. Kilmeade said the Cook Political Report rates the race a toss-up.

On the 28th District, Rove gave the edge to the incumbent. Rep. Henry Cuellar, whom Trump pardoned in December 2025 on federal bribery charges, is running for reelection as a Democrat. Rove said Trump "assumed that he would switch parties out of gratitude and run as a Republican, but he didn't." His opponent, Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina, did, leaving the Democrats in December 2024. Rove said "Cuellar's a very strong name and a very strong family tie throughout the district," which would have backed Trump 54.8 percent to 44.4 percent, according to Ballotpedia.

Source: Texas Tribune (margins under the new lines, rounded to the nearest point; Hispanic share of population). The TX-34 and TX-28 margins match the Ballotpedia figures cited above.

Hispanic Voters and Donald Trump

Kilmeade asked whether Hispanic voters would make the 34th harder for Republicans, saying Trump "had over 40% in the general, and now he seems to have lost, he's down to the 30s." Rove answered, "Yeah, exactly, the 34th."

Nationally, Trump's approval stands at 37.6 percent in PolitiKool's polling average.

What To Watch in Texas

Rove did not say which seat would be the fourth. Early voting is already underway in a state where the Senate race is also competitive.