Democrats have high hopes for midterms, but polls have let them down before

Democrats enter Tuesday's midterm elections confident of a strong showing, but recent history shows polling can overstate their position. Surveys indicate Democratic candidates ahead in far more than the 218 House seats required for a majority, and level or slightly ahead in pivotal Senate contests. A New York Times poll found South Carolina, which Donald Trump carried by 18 points in 2024, tied, while CNN surveys showed Democrats leading in Texas, Kansas and Maine, according to BBC.

BBC reports that pollsters have missed before. Trump beat expectations in 2016 and 2024, and his 2020 loss to Joe Biden was tighter than forecast. This year, primaries produced misses too: Abdul El-Sayed's Michigan Senate primary margin was 1% rather than the double digits predicted. Clifford Young of Ipsos Public Affairs says people are harder to reach and less willing to respond, particularly anti-establishment conservatives, which could tilt data toward Democrats. He adds that primaries are traditionally volatile and say little about general-election polling, which has been more reliable in midterms.

Several factors could limit Democratic gains: Republican-friendly terrain, district boundary changes, fewer swing voters, and a Republican fundraising edge for attack ads. Averages of polls are more dependable than single surveys.

Summarized by PolitiKool from BBC’s reporting. Read the full story at BBC →