End of the Trump era? Top US polling analyst shares prediction as midterms loom

Nate Silver, who founded FiveThirtyEight and now publishes Silver Bulletin, believes next week's midterm elections may close out the Trump era. Speaking with New York Times podcaster Ezra Klein in an interview released Tuesday, he said polling points to heavy Republican losses, driven by voter anger over living costs and the Iran war, and by President Donald Trump's approval rating sitting at historic lows, according to The Independent.

Silver argued that a bad night for Trump would turn him into a "super-lame duck" the moment votes are tallied, since attention would shift immediately to the 2028 race. He compared the situation to George W. Bush's position after 2006, when his party lost the House and Senate. Democrats have promised to confront Trump's signature policies and investigate officials, possibly seeking the impeachment of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.

Silver credited several causes for Democratic strength: the usual midterm penalty for a president's party, stronger Democratic nominees, and weaker Republican opponents, such as Texas Senate candidate Ken Paxton, who has faced a series of scandals. He conceded polls can err, noting they favored Democrats in the last three presidential contests. House Speaker Mike Johnson told Fox News that Republicans increasingly decline to be surveyed.

Summarized by PolitiKool from The Independent’s reporting. Read the full story at The Independent →