Fox News Power Rankings: As the House falls, the Senate stays in play

Fox News's latest Power Rankings forecast concludes that Republicans have probably lost the House this year, while control of the Senate remains genuinely contested. Twenty more House races moved toward the Democrats in this update, and the forecast now has that party winning the chamber.

Two factors separate this cycle from the last two midterms. President Donald Trump is less popular today than he was heading into 2018, and also less popular than President Joe Biden was heading into 2022. Meanwhile, Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot by a larger and steadier margin than they did during the 2018 "blue wave." The forecast also cites stronger Democratic candidates and a Republican redistricting push that may deliver less than hoped.

By the forecast's count, 219 seats lean Democratic or better, 198 favor Republicans, and 18 are toss-ups. Because toss-ups have usually broken toward a single party in past elections, a good night could give Democrats about 237 seats, a gain of 22. A great night, including some Lean Republican seats, could reach 249.

In the Senate, Democrats have many routes to 51 seats.

Summarized by PolitiKool from Fox News’s reporting. Read the full story at Fox News →