How is the US economy really doing under President Trump?

As midterm elections approach, President Donald Trump is touting a thriving economy, but BBC Verify finds a mixed picture. Output has grown 3. 2% since the end of 2024, ahead of every other G7 member, and is currently expanding at an annualized 2. 2%. A surge of artificial intelligence spending, including data center construction, is propping that up and could become a weakness if it recedes. The International Monetary Fund had projected worse results after the April 2025 tariff announcement, though Trump later eased many of the duties.

Prices are the sore spot. Inflation stands at 3. 7%, compared with the 3% Trump inherited and a 9% high in 2022 under Joe Biden. Economists say the tariffs added to it, and the Iran war's disruption of energy supplies did too; diesel hit a record $6. 52 a gallon in September. Beef and coffee cost more, while eggs cost less.

Pay is up in aggregate, with inflation-adjusted median income reaching $87,460 in 2025. Even so, the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy calculates that middle-income households will be about $1,700 worse off in 2026, versus about $12,560 gained by the richest 1%.

Summarized by PolitiKool from BBC’s reporting. Read the full story at BBC →