Mike Lawler flipped a New York district red in 2022. But his ties to Trump might bite him in the midterms

Republican Representative Mike Lawler, 40, is in a close contest to hold New York's 17th congressional district, a Hudson valley seat that tilts slightly Democratic. He won it in 2022 and kept it in 2024 with a moderate image, but his alignment with President Donald Trump now threatens him as Trump's approval slides and cost-of-living anger grows, which is tied to the war with Iran. Lawler himself says this is no normal midterm, according to The Guardian.

He three times voted against a measure to limit Trump's military action in Iran and backed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which was expected to leave half a million New Yorkers without health insurance. Democrat Cait Conley, a veteran and former national security official, says he votes with Trump every time it matters. The Cook Political Report rates the race a toss-up. Emerson College Polling/PIX 11 found Conley ahead 48% to 46%, while a Republican-sponsored McLaughlin & Associates poll had Lawler up 50% to 47%.

Lawler has split with Trump over state and local tax deductions, protected status for Haitian immigrants and a diesel deal with Russia. He is also relying on frequent in-person town halls and close ties to local communities.

Summarized by PolitiKool from The Guardian’s reporting. Read the full story at The Guardian →