The Senate wasn’t supposed to be in play. Here’s why it is.

With Election Day arriving, the fight for control of the Senate has spread across a much broader map than almost anyone predicted. Democrats need a net gain of four seats against a 53-47 Republican majority, since Vice President JD Vance would break a 50-50 tie. Yet President Donald Trump spent Sunday in Salina, Kansas, rallying for Sen. Roger Marshall, a sign that Republicans are defending turf they once took for granted. Meanwhile, Rep. Haley Stevens of Michigan endorsed Republican Mike Rogers over Abdul El-Sayed, the progressive who defeated her in the Democratic primary, leaving Michigan Democrats scrambling, according to MS NOW.

Polling averages from FiftyPlusOne show Democrats ahead in five of eight possible pickups, and competitive in Ohio, Alaska, Iowa and Texas. Republican groups have outspent them on ads since Labor Day, topping $1 billion to under $900 million, per AdImpact. Democrats credit a cost-of-living message, the October 2025 shutdown over health subsidies, and attacks on Trump's alleged corruption. Hakeem Jeffries credits pushback against MAGA extremism. Strategists also point to Trump's weak approval and recruits pressed into running by Chuck Schumer, though Democrats' own unpopularity remains a risk.

Summarized by PolitiKool from MS NOW’s reporting. Read the full story at MS NOW →