The top 11 Senate seats most likely to flip, the day before the midterms

Democrats head into Tuesday's midterms with a realistic shot at taking the Senate, though several of the contests that will decide control are in strongly Republican states and could go either way. CNN's ranking of the seats most likely to change hands now covers 11 races, with South Carolina newly added, while Texas and Kansas have climbed. Democrats need a net gain of four seats and cannot lose any they hold. President Donald Trump's approval stands at 34% in CNN's Poll of Polls average, and economic worries, the Iran war and corruption concerns seem to be energizing Democrats.

Republicans, backed by Trump's political network and Elon Musk, hold a modest advantage in final-month advertising across the 11 races, $560 million against $521 million, per AdImpact. North Carolina is the likeliest flip: High Point University/YouGov found former Governor Roy Cooper ahead of Michael Whatley by 14 points among likely voters, and Republicans have scaled back spending there.

In Ohio, the average has former Sen. Sherrod Brown at 50% and Sen. Jon Husted at 45%. In Texas, polls show no clear leader between James Talarico and Ken Paxton, although New York Times/Siena and CNN surveys put Talarico ahead.

Summarized by PolitiKool from CNN’s reporting. Read the full story at CNN →