Trump could be a ‘super lame-duck’ if things go badly for the president on Election Day

Analysts say the November 3 midterms could sharply weaken President Donald Trump's standing and open the 2028 race early. Nate Silver told Ezra Klein's podcast that a poor night for Trump would make him a "super-lame duck," since the next presidential campaign effectively starts once votes are tallied. Silver likened the situation to George W. Bush after 2006, and said Kansas and Texas now look competitive. Charlie Cook, per the Cook Political Report, called it unlike any of the 22 elections he has covered, with traditionally loyal Republicans in farm country faulting Trump over Iran and trade, according to MS NOW.

MS NOW reports that the cycle is also changing how politics works. Mid-decade redistricting has become routine after Trump urged Republican legislatures to redraw maps. Democrats could take most governorships for the first time in sixteen years, which would matter for later map fights. Democrats are divided over Israel, and 2028 hopefuls are watching whether Abdul El-Sayed wins in Michigan. Vice President JD Vance attacked El-Sayed in personal terms, and claimed he "allegedly came from Egypt," though El-Sayed was born in Oakland County, Michigan.

Summarized by PolitiKool from MS NOW’s reporting. Read the full story at MS NOW →