What NPR's senior political correspondent is watching for on Election Night

Domenico Montanaro, NPR's senior political editor and correspondent, outlined the signals he will track as Tuesday's midterm results arrive. His central question is whether Republican voters show up. Strong GOP turnout could blunt expected Democratic gains, while weak turnout could produce a sweeping loss for the party across the country.

Early in the evening, he is looking at Indiana's 5th District, held by Victoria Spartz, who is expected to win, and Kentucky's 6th, which is close. A narrow Spartz result would be a warning sign for Republicans in the House. Florida's 22nd District, with a large Latino population, could foreshadow Democratic strength in South Florida and South Texas. By 9 p. m. Eastern, ten states report, giving a sense of whether Democrats can overcome Republicans' three-seat House edge.

The Senate may be slower to resolve. Alaska is a toss-up that tallies ballots slowly and uses ranked-choice voting, so control could stay uncertain for weeks, which Montanaro fears would feed misinformation. Democrats need four seats; he says they could gain one or two if President Donald Trump energizes his base, or six or seven if not.

Summarized by PolitiKool from NPR’s reporting. Read the full story at NPR →