← 2026 Senate map · Likely R
Arkansas Senate polls
Shoffner (D) vs. Cotton (R)
Tom Cotton leads the 2026 Arkansas Senate race by 7.3 points in PolitiKool's polling average, as of Oct. 11, 2026.
- Shoffner 40.8%, Cotton 48.1%.
- 5 polls from 4 pollsters, weighted by recency, sample size, pollster record and partisan sponsorship.
- The margin has moved 0.5 points toward Tom Cotton over the past month.
- Rated Likely R, combining the average with the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball and Inside Elections.
- The seat is held by Tom Cotton (R).
Arkansas Senate polling average
Hallie Shoffner40.8%
Tom Cotton48.1%
MarginCotton +7.3
Average as of Oct. 11, 2026 · — Hallie Shoffner · — Tom Cotton
Latest Arkansas Senate polls
| Dates | Pollster | Sample | Shoffner | Cotton | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept. 30 – Oct. 4 | Grayhouse | 550 LV | 40% | 51% | Cotton +11 |
| Aug. 14–18 | J.L. Partners | 803 LV | 35% | 51% | Cotton +16 |
| Aug. 11–12 | Hendrix College | 1,217 LV | 47% | 44% | Shoffner +3 |
| July 17–25 | 2040 Strategy Group (partisan) | 586 LV | 43% | 46% | Cotton +3 |
| Feb. 7–9 | GrayHouse / America One Policies | 550 LV | 36% | 58% | Cotton +22 |