← 2026 Senate map · Likely R
Florida Senate polls (special election)
Nixon (D) vs. Moody (R)
Ashley Moody leads the 2026 Florida Senate race by 7.0 points in PolitiKool's polling average, as of Oct. 11, 2026.
- Nixon 42.7%, Moody 49.7%.
- 10 polls from 8 pollsters, weighted by recency, sample size, pollster record and partisan sponsorship.
- The margin is little changed over the past month.
- Rated Likely R, combining the average with the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball and Inside Elections.
- The seat is held by Ashley Moody (R).
Florida Senate polling average
Angie Nixon42.7%
Ashley Moody49.7%
MarginMoody +7.0
Average as of Oct. 11, 2026 · — Angie Nixon · — Ashley Moody
Latest Florida Senate polls
| Dates | Pollster | Sample | Nixon | Moody | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct. 5–7 | St. Pete Polls / Florida Politics | 836 LV | 45% | 47% | Moody +2 |
| Sept. 28 – Oct. 5 | YouGov | 3,813 LV | 44% | 49% | Moody +5 |
| Sept. 28 – Oct. 4 | Targoz Market Research / The James Madison Institute | 857 LV | 42% | 52% | Moody +10 |
| Sept. 28 – Oct. 1 | Mason-Dixon | 625 LV | 40% | 50% | Moody +10 |
| Sept. 25–27 | Change Research / Freedom Project USA | 1,063 LV | 47% | 48% | Moody +1 |
| Sept. 20–21 | InsiderAdvantage | 600 LV | 42% | 49% | Moody +8 |
| Sept. 14–21 | Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research | 830 LV | 40% | 51% | Moody +11 |
| Sept. 15–17 | St. Pete Polls / Florida Politics | 913 LV | 45% | 45% | Moody +0 |
| Sept. 8–10 | Quantus Insights | 733 LV | 43% | 50% | Moody +7 |
| Sept. 7–9 | Change Research / Freedom Project USA | 1,107 LV | 47% | 47% | Even |
| July 8–17 | University of North Florida | 848 LV | 42% | 50% | Moody +8 |
| March 25 – April 13 | Stetson University | 848 LV | 38% | 51% | Moody +13 |
| March 29–31 | Emerson College | 1,125 LV | 36% | 47% | Moody +11 |
| Feb. 21 – March 2 | University of North Florida | 768 LV | 38% | 46% | Moody +8 |