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Michigan Senate polls
El-Sayed (D) vs. Rogers (R)
Abdul El-Sayed leads the 2026 Michigan Senate race by 3.3 points in PolitiKool's polling average, as of Oct. 11, 2026.
- El-Sayed 48.6%, Rogers 45.3%.
- 24 polls from 23 pollsters, weighted by recency, sample size, pollster record and partisan sponsorship.
- The margin has moved 1.1 points toward Abdul El-Sayed over the past month.
- Rated Toss-up, combining the average with the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball and Inside Elections.
- The seat is held by Gary Peters (D).
Michigan Senate polling average
Abdul El-Sayed48.6%
Mike Rogers45.3%
MarginEl-Sayed +3.3
Average as of Oct. 11, 2026 · — Abdul El-Sayed · — Mike Rogers
Latest Michigan Senate polls
| Dates | Pollster | Sample | El-Sayed | Rogers | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct. 8–9 | Wedgewood Polls | 607 LV | 53% | 47% | El-Sayed +6 |
| Oct. 5–6 | Quantus Insights (partisan) | 762 LV | 48% | 47% | El-Sayed +1 |
| Sept. 22 – Oct. 4 | YouGov | 3,949 LV | 49% | 48% | El-Sayed +1 |
| Oct. 1–1 | Mitchell Research & Communications | 682 LV | 46% | 41% | El-Sayed +5 |
| Sept. 28 – Oct. 1 | Z to A Research / Rust Belt Rising | 483 LV | 49% | 42% | El-Sayed +7 |
| Sept. 28–30 | Trafalgar Group (partisan) | 1,085 LV | 47% | 45% | El-Sayed +2 |
| Sept. 24–28 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research / Fox News | 1,028 LV | 50% | 49% | El-Sayed +1 |
| Sept. 20–27 | Guidant Polling and Strategy / Public First Action | 800 LV | 48% | 43% | El-Sayed +5 |
| Sept. 24–27 | Marist University | 1,235 RV | 51% | 44% | El-Sayed +7 |
| Sept. 22–24 | Big Data Poll (partisan) | 678 LV | 47% | 42% | El-Sayed +5 |
| Sept. 21–23 | co/efficient | 843 LV | 50% | 50% | Even |
| Sept. 15–22 | The New York Times/Siena University | 605 LV | 49% | 44% | El-Sayed +5 |
| Sept. 19–22 | GBAO (partisan) | 800 LV | 48% | 44% | El-Sayed +4 |
| Sept. 18–21 | Cygnal/Beacon Research / Michigan Enjoyer | 600 LV | 45% | 40% | El-Sayed +5 |
| Sept. 16–20 | Suffolk University | 500 LV | 47% | 40% | El-Sayed +7 |
| Sept. 15–19 | Torchlight Strategies (partisan) | 643 LV | 43% | 44% | Rogers +1 |
| Sept. 16–17 | InsiderAdvantage (partisan) | 1,200 LV | 47% | 45% | El-Sayed +2 |
| Sept. 10–14 | The Washington Post/George Mason University School of Policy and Government | 803 LV | 48% | 45% | El-Sayed +3 |
| Sept. 12–14 | Emerson College | 1,000 LV | 48% | 46% | El-Sayed +2 |
| Sept. 7–9 | Trafalgar Group (partisan) | 1,079 LV | 46% | 45% | El-Sayed +2 |
| Aug. 31 – Sept. 6 | SSRS | 843 LV | 47% | 44% | El-Sayed +3 |
| Aug. 31 – Sept. 3 | Glengariff Group | 600 LV | 44% | 46% | Rogers +2 |
| Aug. 22–28 | EPIC-MRA | 600 LV | 47% | 43% | El-Sayed +4 |
| Aug. 26–28 | Abacus Data | 332 LV | 49% | 45% | El-Sayed +4 |
| Aug. 10–20 | Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGov | 779 LV | 50% | 45% | El-Sayed +5 |
| Aug. 11–17 | Susquehanna Polling & Research | 800 RV | 46% | 39% | El-Sayed +7 |
| Aug. 9–11 | Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research / AARP | 877 LV | 48% | 47% | El-Sayed +1 |
| Aug. 6–10 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research / Fox News | 1,006 RV | 47% | 51% | Rogers +4 |
| Aug. 6–10 | GBAO Strategies / Senate Majority PAC | 800 LV | 50% | 44% | El-Sayed +6 |
| Aug. 6–10 | TIPP Insights / League of American Workers | 1,528 RV | 45% | 42% | El-Sayed +3 |