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Minnesota Senate polls
Flanagan (D) vs. Tafoya (R)
Peggy Flanagan leads the 2026 Minnesota Senate race by 3.3 points in PolitiKool's polling average, as of Oct. 11, 2026.
- Flanagan 46.4%, Tafoya 43.1%.
- 9 polls from 9 pollsters, weighted by recency, sample size, pollster record and partisan sponsorship.
- The margin has moved 1.6 points toward Michele Tafoya over the past month.
- Rated Lean D, combining the average with the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball and Inside Elections.
- The seat is held by Tina Smith (D).
Minnesota Senate polling average
Peggy Flanagan46.4%
Michele Tafoya43.1%
MarginFlanagan +3.3
Average as of Oct. 11, 2026 · — Peggy Flanagan · — Michele Tafoya
Latest Minnesota Senate polls
| Dates | Pollster | Sample | Flanagan | Tafoya | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct. 2–7 | Morning Consult (partisan) | 1,000 RV | 45% | 41% | Flanagan +4 |
| Oct. 5–7 | Rasmussen Reports (partisan) | 856 LV | 48% | 45% | Flanagan +3 |
| Oct. 1–4 | GQR / Senate Majority PAC | 800 LV | 50% | 42% | Flanagan +8 |
| Sept. 29–30 | Big Data Poll / Public Polling Project | 622 LV | 46% | 44% | Flanagan +2 |
| Sept. 28–29 | InsiderAdvantage (partisan) | 1,200 LV | 46% | 45% | Flanagan +1 |
| Sept. 14–15 | co/efficient (partisan) | 833 LV | 43% | 42% | Flanagan +1 |
| Sept. 9–14 | SurveyUSA / KSTP-TV (St. Paul), KAAL-TV (Austin), WDIO-DT (Duluth) | 654 LV | 42% | 42% | Even |
| Sept. 8–10 | Quantus Insights | 720 LV | 48% | 44% | Flanagan +4 |
| Aug. 31 – Sept. 2 | TIPP Insights (partisan) | 1,494 RV | 40% | 38% | Flanagan +2 |
| Aug. 17–18 | Deep Root Analytics (partisan) | 597 RV | 50% | 45% | Flanagan +5 |
| Aug. 13–17 | SurveyUSA / KSTP-TV (St. Paul), KAAL-TV (Austin), WDIO-DT (Duluth) | 661 LV | 46% | 41% | Flanagan +5 |
| May 26–28 | Impact Research (partisan) | 808 LV | 51% | 44% | Flanagan +7 |
| Feb. 6–8 | Emerson College | 1,000 LV | 47% | 41% | Flanagan +7 |
| July 8–11 | Impact Research (partisan) | 604 LV | 48% | 45% | Flanagan +3 |