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Texas Senate polls
Talarico (D) vs. Paxton (R)
James Talarico leads the 2026 Texas Senate race by 3.5 points in PolitiKool's polling average, as of Oct. 11, 2026.
- Talarico 47.2%, Paxton 43.7%.
- 22 polls from 20 pollsters, weighted by recency, sample size, pollster record and partisan sponsorship.
- The margin is little changed over the past month.
- Rated Toss-up, combining the average with the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball and Inside Elections.
- The seat is held by John Cornyn (R).
Texas Senate polling average
James Talarico47.2%
Ken Paxton43.7%
MarginTalarico +3.5
Average as of Oct. 11, 2026 · — James Talarico · — Ken Paxton
Latest Texas Senate polls
| Dates | Pollster | Sample | Talarico | Paxton | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct. 6–8 | Trafalgar Group (partisan) | 1,086 LV | 47% | 44% | Talarico +3 |
| Sept. 28 – Oct. 5 | YouGov | 3,625 LV | 50% | 44% | Talarico +6 |
| Sept. 21–30 | New York Times/Siena University | 615 LV | 51% | 45% | Talarico +6 |
| Sept. 28–29 | Rasmussen Reports (partisan) | 1,128 LV | 46% | 45% | Talarico +1 |
| Sept. 24–28 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research / Fox News | 881 LV | 51% | 49% | Talarico +2 |
| Sept. 20–28 | Guidant Polling and Strategy / Public First Action | 800 LV | 47% | 44% | Talarico +2 |
| Sept. 18–28 | University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov | 850 LV | 45% | 45% | Even |
| Sept. 24–27 | Pulse Decision Science (partisan) | 800 LV | 45% | 48% | Paxton +3 |
| Sept. 24–26 | Big Data Poll | 698 LV | 47% | 45% | Talarico +2 |
| Sept. 22–24 | Stratus Intelligence (partisan) | 856 LV | 48% | 48% | Even |
| Sept. 19–22 | Slingshot Strategies / Texas Public Opinion Research | 1,007 LV | 49% | 45% | Talarico +4 |
| Sept. 19–22 | Texas Public Opinion Research (partisan) | 1,007 LV | 49% | 44% | Talarico +5 |
| Sept. 17–20 | Marist University | 1,139 RV | 50% | 44% | Talarico +6 |
| Sept. 15–19 | Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | 1,800 LV | 47% | 46% | Talarico +1 |
| Sept. 15–17 | Trafalgar Group (partisan) | 1,079 LV | 46% | 45% | Talarico +1 |
| Sept. 12–14 | Emerson College / Nexstar Media | 1,000 LV | 47% | 46% | Talarico +1 |
| Sept. 12–13 | SoCal Strategies (partisan) | 649 LV | 50% | 45% | Talarico +5 |
| Sept. 8–11 | ReconMR/Siena University | 614 LV | 49% | 43% | Talarico +6 |
| Sept. 8–10 | Mason-Dixon | 625 LV | 46% | 43% | Talarico +3 |
| Sept. 8–9 | InsiderAdvantage | 1,200 LV | 47% | 46% | Talarico +2 |
| Aug. 27 – Sept. 4 | YouGov / Univision | 1,000 RV | 48% | 43% | Talarico +5 |
| Aug. 30 – Sept. 1 | Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | 895 LV | 48% | 44% | Talarico +4 |
| Aug. 24–26 | Overton Insights (partisan) | 1,167 LV | 50% | 50% | Even |
| Aug. 21–24 | Slingshot Strategies / Texas Public Opinion Research | 1,000 LV | 48% | 42% | Talarico +6 |
| Aug. 5–13 | The Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin/YouGov | 1,218 RV | 42% | 39% | Talarico +3 |
| Aug. 9–10 | Emerson College / Nexstar Media | 1,000 LV | 46% | 47% | Paxton +1 |
| July 30–31 | Wedgewood Polls | 800 LV | 48% | 46% | Talarico +2 |
| July 15–31 | YouGov Blue / 254 Labs | 1,001 RV | 48% | 45% | Talarico +3 |
| July 27–30 | Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | 1,200 LV | 47% | 45% | Talarico +2 |
| July 27–30 | ReconMR/Siena University / Texas A&M University Bush School of Government & Public Service | 619 LV | 47% | 43% | Talarico +4 |