Steve Bannon Concedes Iran War and Prices Are Hurting GOP in Midterm Push

Steve Bannon told his War Room audience on Monday that Republicans still control their own fate in the midterm elections if the MAGA base turns out. He also conceded that the war with Iran and rising prices are weighing heavily on the party five weeks before Election Day.

The admission came right after Bannon aired a clip of Charlie Cook, founder of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, predicting that Democrats will flip both chambers of Congress. Bannon's guest, Republican strategist Alex deGrasse, dismissed talk of a "blue wave" as an effort to suppress GOP turnout. But he also said the key races were within the margin of error.

Steve Bannon on the War and Prices

"Alex deGrasse, we certainly have headwinds. We're not making any argument that the war is not having a massive impact and that the prices are not having an impact," Bannon said.

The episode did not name the war, but Bannon was referring to the U.S. war with Iran. The conflict is now nearly seven months old, and a growing number of Republican candidates have called for it to end as fuel prices climb, Time reported. GOP Senate hopefuls have also pitched a diesel export halt on the campaign trail.

Later in the show, Bannon returned to the war. "People are very upset about this war. They're very upset about the entire national security policy. That's all got to be sorted out," he said, adding, "but that is a conversation for a different day."

His answer was turnout. "I want to make sure everybody understands that our fate is still in our hands," he said, echoing his warning last week that Republicans should "assume we're losing".

What Charlie Cook's Ratings Show

For the Senate, he forecast a Democratic gain of four: "So the Senate goes to 51 49." He described the shift as "anti-Trump basically" rather than pro-Democratic.

Bannon read from a Cook chart of competitive House seats and said, "These are about 43 seats." The Cook Political Report's latest House ratings, released Friday after the outlet moved 15 races toward Democrats, list 22 toss-ups, 17 held by Republicans and five by Democrats. Bannon, reading from the chart on air, put the split at "six by Democrats" and 16 held by Republicans. Cook's ratings show Democrats leading in 208 seats and Republicans in 205. Democrats would land at 219 seats if the toss-ups split evenly and at 230 if they won all of them.

In a Friday column, Cook wrote that Trump's standing had gone "from very unpopular to toxic and now to radioactive." He called the result a "red undertow" that "will pull many Republicans under." PolitiKool's polling average puts Trump's approval at 37.6 percent, with 59.1 percent disapproving.

Is the 'Red Undertow' Normal?

Cook said on the clip that "the thing is this is normal. It's happened to every party in midterm elections."

The historical record supports that. The president's party has lost an average of 25 House seats in midterms since 1946. When the president's approval was below 50 percent, the average loss was 37 seats, according to Gallup. The president's party has gained House seats in only two midterms since 1946, in 1998 and 2002, The Conversation noted.

Alex deGrasse Says Democrats Are on Defense

DeGrasse said Democrats were "playing a ton of defense" and argued that "their party actually has never had worse support in modern history of polling."

The Democratic Party is unpopular. PolitiKool's polling average shows it at 41.4 percent favorable and 55.9 percent unfavorable. But the Republican Party does worse, at 38.6 percent favorable and 59.3 percent unfavorable, according to PolitiKool's average. Democrats also lead the generic congressional ballot by 7.5 points.

"So the one thing I'd say about Cook is, I don't buy much of it in that regard," deGrasse said. Cook's report, however, said "new polling and ad spending" drove its 15 rating changes, all in Democrats' favor. DeGrasse himself defined the close races as "within the margin of error, slightly outside either which way."

Steve Bannon's 2022 Lesson

Bannon pointed to the 2022 midterms as a warning in reverse. "We took the house in a monumental win. We did not get the 35 or 40 seats that we hope, but there's a lesson there even for today," he said.

Republicans won the House 222 to 213, according to the House Historian's party divisions.

"We're not here to give you hopium," Bannon said.

What Happens Next

Bannon and deGrasse warned that a Democratic House would investigate companies that worked with the administration and impeach Cabinet officials. "Bobby Kennedy is going to get impeached in the first week, and Pete Hegseth," Bannon predicted.

DeGrasse is set to join Bannon in studio on Tuesday to go through the House battlegrounds state by state. The Senate is also in play: PolitiKool's Senate average rates control a toss-up, with seven toss-up races.