Ex-Logger Democrat Projected to Unseat Susan Collins in Maine Senate Race

Democrat Troy Jackson will defeat Republican Senator Susan Collins in Maine, NBC News reported. The win would take a seat from Collins, a five-term senator who has served since 1997, and end her tenure.

Jackson is a former logger and state Senate president. Collins conceded, telling supporters, "It has been the honor of my life to serve the people of Maine in the United States Senate," CBS News reported.

The count is not final. With 87.2 percent of the expected vote in, Jackson led Collins 53.7 percent to 46.3 percent, according to NBC News' results page.

How Troy Jackson Became the Nominee

Jackson was not the party's first choice. Graham Platner won the Democratic primary in June but withdrew in July after a sexual assault allegation, which he denies. Maine Democrats picked Jackson to replace him at a hastily organized convention in Bangor on July 26, The Associated Press reported. That left Jackson running a condensed campaign of a little over three months against an incumbent first elected three decades ago.

Jackson's campaign tied Collins to Donald Trump, arguing she "votes with Trump 96% of the time," NBC News reported. Collins disputed that figure, according to the same NBC News report. She leaned on her seniority instead, saying, "I have secured $1.5 billion for 672 projects all over the state of Maine during the past five years," according to NBC News.

Collins Was the Only GOP Senator From a State Trump Lost in 2024

Collins came into this race as the only Republican senator representing a state Trump lost in 2024, according to NBC News and Fox News. That made her the Republican most exposed to any backlash against the president this year.

Maine Senate Polls Showed a Coin Flip

Pre-election polling pointed to a close race, and Jackson's lead in the current count is larger than most surveys found.

• Marist Poll, October 1–4: Jackson 51 percent, Collins 47 percent among registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 points (Marist).
• Suffolk University: Jackson 49 percent, Collins 47 percent among likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 points (Political Wire).
• Fox News poll (Beacon Research/Shaw & Company), October 16–20: tied at 49 percent among likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 points (Fox News).

On the eve of the election, PolitiKool's polling average for Maine had Jackson ahead 50.4 percent to 46.4 percent, a 4-point lead.

The Marist survey also hinted at the national mood weighing on Collins. Trump's job approval among Maine registered voters was 40 percent, against 59 percent disapproval. Nationally, Trump stands at 38.3 percent approval in PolitiKool's polling average.

Voters had still expected Collins to pull through. In the same Marist poll, 57 percent of respondents predicted she would win, compared with 41 percent who expected Jackson to.

What the Maine Flip Means for Senate Control

Maine is one of several Republican-held seats that Democrats flipped on Tuesday. CBS News projects that Democrats will have at least 54 seats in the next Senate, with wins in Texas, North Carolina, South Carolina, Ohio, Kansas, Iowa and Maine.

Two races, in Alaska and Mississippi, had not been called as of Wednesday morning, according to CBS News.

The next step for Maine is the rest of the count.