Harry Enten: Ken Paxton Is Least Popular Texas GOP Senate Nominee This Century

Ken Paxton is the least popular Republican Senate nominee in Texas this century, according to CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten. On Thursday morning Enten put the attorney general's net popularity at minus 16 points and said no other GOP Senate nominee in the state this century had even been underwater.

Enten spoke as Donald Trump headed to Texas to campaign. Paxton is in a close race with Democratic nominee James Talarico for the seat John Cornyn holds. Trump has continued to back Paxton against Talarico, the Texas Tribune reported.

"Congratulations to Ken Paxton. You have done it. You are the least popular Texas GOP Senate nominee this century," Enten said. "And when I was looking at the data, no one else was even in the negative. And you're at minus 16 points at this point. This is record-breaking for Texas."

Harry Enten Ranks Ken Paxton Last Among Key GOP Senate Nominees

Enten showed a chart ranking the net popularity of Republican Senate nominees in key states. None of them were above water. He put the nominee in Ohio at minus 11, Michigan at minus 8, Maine at minus 7 and Iowa at minus 2. Paxton was at the bottom.

"None of these other key Republican Senate nominees are positive, but yet Ken Paxton beats them all in the negative direction," Enten said. He also described Paxton as "deep under the Gulf of Mexico, or again in Trump's language, the Gulf of America."

Enten said his figure came from "all the polling" but did not name the surveys behind it. Recent individual polls have Paxton underwater, though by less than 16 points. An Emerson College Polling/Nexstar survey of likely voters, taken September 12–14, found 40 percent viewed Paxton favorably and 48 percent unfavorably, a net of minus 8. Talarico was at plus 6 in that poll. An August University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll of registered voters had Paxton at 34 percent favorable and 47 percent unfavorable, a net of minus 13.

How Past Texas Senate Nominees Compared

Enten said a Republican Senate nominee in Texas is "almost always" in positive territory. Even Ted Cruz, in his 2018 race against Beto O'Rourke, was above water. A Quinnipiac University poll taken October 3–9, 2018, found 52 percent of likely voters viewed Cruz favorably and 44 percent unfavorably.

Texas Senate Polls Show a Toss-Up as Donald Trump Campaigns

The head-to-head race is close. PolitiKool's polling average has Talarico at 46.2 percent and Paxton at 43.5 percent, a lead of 2.7 points. A Marist Poll survey taken September 17–20 had Talarico ahead 50 percent to 44 percent among registered voters. The same poll found 43 percent of Texans approved of Trump's job performance and 55 percent disapproved. Nationally, Trump's approval stands at 37.6 percent in PolitiKool's polling average.

Trump's trip to Texas started a 32-day campaign push before the midterms. It includes a stop in Denton, where Paxton was expected to join him, Fortune reported.

The visit comes after The New York Times published an audio recording of Paxton's private remarks to donors. In it, Paxton said Trump's Republican midterm convention in Dallas had hurt his numbers. Nick Maddux, a Paxton adviser, called the recording "more manipulated nonsense from the New York Times to create a story that doesn't exist," according to the Texas Tribune. The campaign also released an internal poll, taken two weeks after the convention, that showed Paxton ahead of Talarico by three points, according to the Tribune.