Megyn Kelly: Kamala Harris Leads 2028 Field by 10, but Ex-Aides Doubt She Runs

Former Vice President Kamala Harris holds a double-digit lead in the national 2028 Democratic primary polling average, yet most of her former aides surveyed by Axios expect her to stay out of the race, Megyn Kelly reported on Tuesday's AM Update.

The split between Harris's standing in the polls and the skepticism of the people who worked for her is the throughline of Kelly's segment. The Axios report, published Sunday, found that only one of eight former aides and advisers surveyed expects Harris to enter the race, while five predicted she will not and two called her odds a toss-up.

"A new Axios report finding many of former Vice President Kamala Harris's closest former aides, advisors and donors do not believe she will run for president again in 2028," Kelly said. "The decision potentially reshaping the Democrat primary field, Ms. Harris currently leading the RealClearPolitics polling average of 24.1%, more than 10 points ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom."

Kamala Harris 2028 Polling Average

Kelly's 24.1 percent figure for Harris matches RealClearPolitics' 2028 Democratic primary national average, the source she cited on air. Newsom trails by more than 10 points, and Kelly said former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York and Senator Jon Ossoff of Georgia round out the top five in that order.

Harris's national advantage does not carry over to the first primary state. A University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll of 648 likely Democratic primary voters, released July 23, found Ocasio-Cortez leading New Hampshire Democrats at 22 percent and Buttigieg close behind at 21 percent, with Harris in sixth place at just 5 percent, trailing Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona at 9 percent, Newsom at 8 percent and Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont at 6 percent.

What Former Harris Aides Told Axios

Kelly walked through the reasons the Axios sources gave for their doubts, starting with the size of Harris's current political operation.

"Former staffers point to what they describe as a relatively limited political operation. Ms. Harris doing some campaigning for midterm candidates, appearing on podcasts and promoting her memoir," Kelly said. "The sources view those moves as an effort to preserve her influence, however, rather than the early stages of another presidential campaign."

Kelly summarized a related argument from the report: "One former aide arguing a candidate determined to run would already be hiring more staff, traveling more extensively, and taking a larger role in the party's policy debates."

Donors are a second obstacle. Axios reported that several major backers remain angry about the 2024 loss and that some are gravitating toward other prospective candidates, including Maryland Governor Wes Moore and Newsom.

Kelly also cited LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman, one of the Democratic Party's largest donors, who said Harris would face "a very challenging path for her, and it's going to be a very noisy field," according to the Baltimore Sun, which reported the remark Thursday.

What Harris Has Said

Harris has said publicly and privately that she has not made a decision, Axios reported. Kelly played a clip from Harris's appearance earlier this month on soccer star Megan Rapinoe's podcast, in which the former vice president described why she remains in public life and where her attention is focused.

"I don't know how to live and not serve. I honestly don't ... So right now, midterms, midterms, midterms, full time, occupying my thoughts, my mind and my work. We have to win these midterms," Harris said.

She described the midterms as the vehicle for what she called restoring balance in government. "And so I'm spending full time working on doing everything I can to help people restore some balance in our government, which is through the midterms, winning back Congress, the House and the Senate so that we can stop the madness," she said.

Nothing in the clip Kelly aired addressed a 2028 decision directly.

What Happens Next

The midterm environment Harris is campaigning in currently favors her party. PolitiKool's polling average puts Democrats ahead on the generic congressional ballot by 6.7 points, 48.2 percent to 41.5 percent, and PolitiKool's polling average has President Donald Trump's approval at 38.8 percent against 58.2 percent disapproval.

Whether that environment translates into a Harris candidacy remains an open question. She has set no timeline for a decision, her former aides are betting against her, and the candidates trailing her nationally are already ahead of her in New Hampshire.

Kelly framed the report as one that could reshape the field either way. If Harris runs, she starts as the national front-runner. If she does not, roughly a quarter of Democratic primary voters in the current average are up for grabs.