4 charts show why Trump’s GOP may face a worse midterm fate than Bush’s 2006 ‘thumping’

Voters heading into this year's midterms face economic conditions that look tougher than those Republicans confronted in 2006, when they lost both chambers of Congress, according to MS NOW economic analyst Steve Rattner. On the "Morning Joe" program, the former Treasury official set President Donald Trump's standing against that of President George W. Bush, who later described the 2006 result as a "thumping."

Gasoline is the sharpest contrast. Rattner said prices were higher for most of Bush's second term, but they dropped by 25% in the three months before that election. Today they are climbing, reaching $4.46 a gallon from $2.88 in January. Adjusted for inflation, the 2006 average was $3.69, versus $4.35 now. Pay is also stuck: real wages were growing 2.5% a year by Election Day in 2006, yet have been essentially flat over the past year. Inflation, mortgage rates and hiring are all weaker than in October 2006, while unemployment and economic growth are roughly even.

Trump's approval rating of 37% nearly matches Bush's before that vote. Bush, however, started 2006 above 50%, and Trump has not hit that mark since returning to office. Rattner concluded that most similarities to 2006 work against Trump.

Summarized by PolitiKool from MS NOW’s reporting. Read the full story at MS NOW →