Fox News Radio Host Questions Donald Trump's Strategy in Texas

A Fox News Radio host questioned President Donald Trump's strategy in Texas on Thursday, after he told a San Antonio rally to "pretend" he is on the ballot and claimed Republicans get "exactly 48% more votes" when he is. Republican Ken Paxton is trailing Democrat James Talarico in the state's Senate race.

Mary Walter, a conservative radio host filling in for Brian Kilmeade on The Brian Kilmeade Show, played the clip and asked listeners whether the pitch made sense, "especially when his approval rating is so low, is this a smart strategy?" Trump spoke Wednesday at the Freeman Coliseum, his third trip to Texas for Paxton in less than a month.

"I'm asking you to pretend, remember pretend, you just have to pretend," Trump said. "Somebody said I'm forcing them, I'm not forcing, pretend that I'm on the ballot because we get a lot more votes, when I'm on the ballot we get exactly 48% more votes."

He added that "in a way we are on the ballot, let's face it, because they're going to destroy everything that we've done." He also reminded supporters that early voting runs from October 19 to October 30.

"Pretend that I'm on the ballot because we get a lot more votes, when I'm on the ballot we get exactly 48% more votes." — Donald Trump

What Texas Turnout Shows When Trump Is on the Ballot

Trump gave no source for the 48 percent figure. Texas's own records show the electorate grows sharply when he leads the ticket.

Texans cast 11,388,674 votes in November 2024 and 8,102,908 in the 2022 midterm, according to the Texas Secretary of State. That is roughly 41 percent more. The Republican vote grew faster. Trump won 6.56 million votes in 2024, about 48 percent more than the 4.44 million Greg Abbott won in his 2022 reelection.

The 2022 race also shows the limits of the claim. Abbott won by about 11 points with Trump off the ballot. The same pattern held in 2018 and 2020: turnout was 8.37 million in the 2018 midterm and 11.3 million in the 2020 presidential race.

Texas Senate Polls Show Talarico Ahead

Judge Glock, a senior fellow and director of research at the Manhattan Institute, appeared on the same show. "There's definitely a problem," he said of Paxton. "So Texas is a state that Trump won by almost 14 points in the last election. It was an absolute landslide."

Glock said Talarico led "from anywhere from a few points" to as many as nine in a poll he had seen. In PolitiKool's polling average, Talarico leads 46.9 percent to 43.5 percent, an edge of 3.4 points. A YouGov poll of 3,625 registered voters, taken from September 28 to October 5, had Talarico ahead 50 percent to 44 percent, Fox 7 Austin reported. An Emerson College poll taken in August had Paxton up by a point, 47 percent to 46 percent.

Glock said voters' doubts are partly about Paxton himself, citing his "marital problems, legal problems." He said Trump "is probably correct that it would be better if Trump himself were on the ballot than Paxton." Even some Fox voices friendly to the president have knocked Paxton's campaign.

Inflation Check: Glock's 3.4 Percent Is Right

Glock summed up the party's broader problem in three words: "inflation, inflation, inflation." He said "it is higher today than it was when Trump entered office in January 2025."

The record backs him up. Consumer prices rose 3.4 percent in the 12 months ending in August, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported, with energy up 16.3 percent. The 12-month rate was 3.0 percent in January 2025. Regular gas is averaging $4.35 a gallon, according to PolitiKool's gas price tracker. Just 29.7 percent of Americans approve of Trump's handling of the economy in PolitiKool's polling average.

What Happens Next

Election Day is November 3.

Walter told listeners she thinks the base will turn out. She said the open question is the independents who backed Trump in 2024.

"Does voting for Trump or pretending he's on the ballot get those people back?" she asked. "That is the question."