Canada could steal the one prize Trump wants most

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has emerged as a longshot contender for this year's Nobel Peace Prize, an honor President Donald Trump has spent months saying he deserves. Odds compiled from the Kalshi prediction market and relayed by the betting site Covers on Monday morning put Carney at 14 percent, ahead of Doctors Without Borders and Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms, with the winner due October 9. By evening he had fallen to 5 percent, behind both groups but still above Trump's 2 percent, according to The Independent.

Trump has complained that the Norwegian Nobel Committee has passed him over, saying he ended eight wars. He noted that María Corina Machado, the 2025 laureate, gave him her medal in January, after U.S. forces seized Venezuela's then-President Nicolás Maduro. Yet he has also taken the country into a war with Iran, where Pentagon data available to the public shows at least 19 American service members have died.

Carney, meanwhile, drew a standing ovation at Davos in January by opposing Trump's Greenland tariff threats and arguing that middle powers such as Canada "are not powerless." Last month, once negotiations broke down, Washington slapped 50 percent duties on about $20 billion of Canadian goods, and Ottawa answered with "dollar-for-dollar" tariffs on American steel, electronics and dairy. Carney called U.S. efforts to limit Canada's trade deals with others "unacceptable," but says the two countries can "compartmentalize" and keep cooperating.

Summarized by PolitiKool from The Independent’s reporting. Read the full story at The Independent →