Could a Democrat Win the Race for the Late Lindsey Graham's Seat in Deep-Red South Carolina?

A Senate seat that Republicans have held without interruption in South Carolina this century is suddenly competitive. Sen. Darline Graham, appointed by the governor after her brother Lindsey Graham died in July, faces pediatrician Annie Andrews, the Democratic nominee, and a New York Times/Siena poll of likely voters shows the contest roughly deadlocked. Cook Political Report has moved its rating three times since August, from Solid Republican to Likely Republican and, on Oct. 20, to Lean Republican.

Experts point to a rough national climate for the GOP. Presidents' parties usually lose ground in midterms, and Donald Trump's approval has sunk to a level not seen heading into an election since Harry Truman in 1946, with the economy and the war in Iran driving discontent. Clemson University political scientist Joseph Ura says that pressure explains tight contests in places such as Texas and Ohio as well.

Local factors matter too. Lindsey Graham had won his June primary by nearly 28 points and was expected to cruise, but University of South Carolina political scientist Shannon Bridgmon says his death changed everything, leaving a race that behaves like an open-seat contest. Darline Graham then beat Rep.

Summarized by PolitiKool from Time’s reporting. Read the full story at Time →