Steve Bannon Warns of GOP Trouble in Ohio, Iowa, Kansas and North Carolina

Steve Bannon told his War Room audience on Thursday that he is "very concerned" about weakness at the top of the Republican ticket in four states, five days before the November 3 midterm elections.

"You got a North Carolina problem. You have an Ohio problem. You got an Iowa problem. You got a Kansas problem," Bannon said, describing "state pockets" where Republicans could lose ground.

He did not write those states off. He followed the list immediately with word from allies on the ground: "Now, I'm hearing from people in Iowa. It's coming back our way. I'm hearing from people in Kansas. It's the same exact thing. I'm hearing from people in Ohio that's coming back our way, even in North Carolina, although the early vote there has some, I think, shocking numbers in it."

Bannon Says Midterm Races Are on a 'Razor's Edge'

The warning came as part of a broader case that Republicans have not yet turned out their own voters. Bannon, a former chief strategist to President Donald Trump, said the outcome is still up to them.

"Look, I'm telling you right now, having been in the field, I can tell you, these are on the razor's edge," he said. "We still have control over our fate."

He said the party still needs "turning out every vote of the high propensity votes, which we still haven't done," and a "better representation of the low propensity voters." Democrats, he said, "they've done an excellent job on their high propensity voters to get them out."

Forecasters are less hopeful for his side. Decision Desk HQ's forecast on October 26 gave Democrats a 79 percent chance of winning the House, with a projected 238 seats, and a 57 percent chance of winning the Senate.

What the Polling Shows in Bannon's Four States

In the Senate race in each of the four states, a Democrat currently leads PolitiKool's polling average. How close those leads are varies a lot.

• North Carolina: Democrat Roy Cooper leads Republican Michael Whatley 52.4 percent to 40.9 percent in PolitiKool's polling average for the open seat, an 11.5-point margin.
• Ohio: Democrat Sherrod Brown leads Republican Senator Jon Husted 48.4 percent to 45.2 percent in PolitiKool's polling average.
• Kansas: Democrat Adam Hamilton leads Republican Senator Roger Marshall 47.2 percent to 45.3 percent in PolitiKool's polling average.
• Iowa: Democrat Josh Turek leads Republican Ashley Hinson 46.4 percent to 45.6 percent in PolitiKool's polling average, a gap of less than a point.

So Bannon's optimism fits Iowa, Kansas and Ohio, where the margins are within a few points. North Carolina is the outlier. Even he hedged on that state, and Cooper's lead is the widest of the four. Analysts have had their own doubts about the Plains races: Nate Silver has said he is "a little skeptical" of the Kansas and Iowa polls.

The trouble for Republicans goes beyond the Senate. In Ohio's race for governor, Democrat Amy Acton leads Republican Vivek Ramaswamy by 2.8 points in PolitiKool's polling average. In Iowa, Democrat Rob Sand leads Republican Zach Lahn by 7.3 points in PolitiKool's polling average. Kansas is the exception: Republican Ty Masterson leads Democrat Cindy Holscher by 4.4 points in PolitiKool's polling average.

The national picture is no help to Bannon's side. Trump's approval stands at 37.6 percent in PolitiKool's polling average, and Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot by 8.5 points in PolitiKool's polling average.

Trump's Final-Week Rally Push

Bannon pointed to the president's travel as proof of how close the races are. "President Trump's not going into the brightest red areas in the political map of the MAGA movement for his health," he said.

Bannon said Trump was in South Carolina for the second time, adding, "I think he was there 10 days ago." The state is home to a competitive Senate race, where Republican nominee Darline Graham leads Democrat Annie Andrews 47.1 percent to 45.1 percent in PolitiKool's polling average.

Neil McCabe, a War Room guest, said on the show that Trump's schedule matches his 2018 midterm push: "This cycle, he'll be doing 30 rallies again, 19 states, 10 rallies in the last week." McCabe also said there is talk at the White House of adding Maine to the list to help Senator Susan Collins.

What to Watch on Election Night

Bannon said War Room will watch Maine and New Hampshire "very early in the evening" as early signs of whether Democrats can claim a wave. His four problem states will tell the rest of the story.

With early voting ending in many states this week, Bannon's message to his audience was about turnout, not polling. Like Sean Hannity's warning that the Republican early vote is "not where it needs to be," it is an open admission from a pro-Trump host that the party's voters have not yet shown up in the numbers it needs.