Steve Bannon Warns War-Weary Donald Trump Voters Could Stay Home or Turn

Steve Bannon warned on Tuesday that some voters who backed Donald Trump in 2020 and 2024 could sit out the midterm elections or turn against the president, citing anger over the war and a sense that the economy was neglected.

The remark came during a War Room segment with Ronald Armstrong, a Michigan grassroots leader, 21 days before the November 3 election. Republicans are trailing in most of the national numbers. Trump's approval stands at 37.8 percent in PolitiKool's polling average, and Democrats lead by 7.8 points in PolitiKool's generic ballot average.

Bannon described the discontent as something the movement had already passed through. He said there was a phase when people said, "hey, look, I hate the war, I don't like there wasn't a focus on the economy."

"I'm either staying home or worse," Bannon said, describing those voters. "Some of the people you just talked about that came and joined us in 20 and 24 in those cycles might even step out and vote against President Trump and the and the and the team in Congress and in the Senate."

Steve Bannon Faults the Senate, Not Just the Base

Bannon also aimed at Senate Republicans. "The Senate hasn't done anything under President Trump," he said, before asking Armstrong whether a "lack of enthusiasm and urgency" still threatened turnout.

"Have we burned through that or is that still an issue?" Bannon asked. He then suggested the answer was improving: "I think you're starting to see people come together and back Abbott and back Paxton."

Armstrong played the problem down. "I think that after a primary, there are always those that say they're going to stay home, always those that are all of a sudden turned against Trump," he said.

Bannon did not name Iran in that exchange, saying only "the war." But the war with Iran has been unpopular. In an AP-NORC poll conducted July 23-27, 64 percent of adults said it had not been worth fighting. Republican approval of Trump's handling of Iran fell to 61 percent, down from 71 percent in June.

The economy is an even weaker issue for the president. Only 29.9 percent approve of his handling of it in PolitiKool's economy approval average.

Michigan Senate Race Tests the Turnout Theory

Armstrong argued that the Michigan Senate race could be won. "Mike Rogers only lost by 19000 votes," he said, referring to the former Republican congressman's 2024 loss to Democrat Elissa Slotkin. NBC News results show Slotkin won 48.6 percent to 48.3 percent, out of nearly 5.6 million votes cast.

Rogers is running again, this time against Democrat Abdul El-Sayed. Bannon said "Michigan's a dead heat," while PolitiKool's Michigan Senate average shows El-Sayed ahead 48.7 percent to 45.3 percent. Armstrong said the effort would "target those 1,300,000 low propensity voters in Michigan."

Donald Trump's Rally Map: 'Not Guaranteed Victories'

Earlier in the show, Bannon was blunt about the president's travel. "These are not guaranteed victories at all," he said. "Alaska is in play. Arizona, Annie Biggs is having a problem."

"President Trump's not going there for his health," he added. "He's going there because these guys need a need a jolt of energy and the grassroots are asking for some help here."

Trump rallied in Wasilla, Alaska, on Tuesday for Senator Dan Sullivan and Representative Nick Begich. On Wednesday he goes to Kalispell, Montana, for Aaron Flint, who is running for retiring Representative Ryan Zinke's House seat. He also has a stop planned in Arizona, where Representative Andy Biggs is challenging Governor Katie Hobbs.

Neil McCabe, a War Room correspondent, said Georgia comes next on Friday, then Kentucky on Saturday and Kansas on Monday. A stop in North Carolina for Republican Senate nominee Michael Whatley is set for next Tuesday. McCabe said Kansas Senator Roger Marshall faces "a race that nobody really expected to be difficult" against Adam Hamilton, a United Methodist pastor.

PolitiKool's averages show Republicans trailing in most of those races. Sullivan is down 4.6 points in Alaska, Marshall is down 2 in Kansas and Whatley is down 10.7 in North Carolina. In Kentucky, Republican Andy Barr leads by 10.9.

What Happens Next

Bannon framed the remaining weeks as a turnout fight rather than a battle for persuasion. "It's going to come down to not persuasion by actually getting them out," he said.

Earlier in October, Bannon conceded GOP "headwinds" with Texas Hispanic voters. Fox News host Sean Hannity has said he lacks "confidence" in a Republican midterm win. Whether the voters Bannon described return in time is the question he left open.