Sean Hannity Says He Lacks 'Confidence' in a Republican Midterm Win in November
The Fox News host says polls have been "atrocious" and leans on a GOP pollster's finding that they overstate Democrats.
Sean Hannity told listeners on Thursday that he does not feel confident Republicans will win the midterm elections, which he said were 26 days away. He also said he could make a case for a Republican upset or for a Democratic "blue wave."
"I wish I could give you confidence about the election. I, I, I don't have pessimism about the election, but I don't have confidence about the election either," Hannity, the Fox News host, said on The Sean Hannity Show.
The doubt comes from one of Donald Trump's most reliable allies in the media, and the president is deep underwater as Republicans defend both chambers. Trump's approval stands at 37.4 percent, with 59.5 percent disapproving, in PolitiKool's polling average. Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot 48.4 percent to 40.3 percent in PolitiKool's polling average.
Sean Hannity Says Republicans Could 'Shock the World'—or Lose
Hannity presented both outcomes as possible and predicted neither. He borrowed a line from Newt Gingrich, the former House speaker booked for the next hour: "I can sit here and make a case that Republicans can shock the world. I believe they can." Then he added, "And I can make a case that we could have a blue wave."
He said pundits who claim to know the outcome are guessing. "I think I'm being more honest than a lot of other people out there," he said. "I think they're guessing. I think the polls have been atrocious. I don't trust them."
He named races he never expected to be close. On Michelle Tafoya, the former NBC sportscaster who is the Republican Senate nominee in Minnesota, he said, "I never would have thought Minnesota would ever be in the conversation 26 days outside of this election." He also disputed media ratings that call Kansas a toss-up. Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932.
His path to a Senate majority ran through Maine, Michigan, Iowa, Ohio, Texas and Alaska. Republicans already hold five of those six seats.
Hannity Cites Patrick Ruffini on Polling Bias
Hannity based his distrust of the polls on a Wall Street Journal column by Karl Rove, the former George W. Bush adviser, and on work by Patrick Ruffini, a Republican pollster and co-founder of Echelon Insights. In Hannity's account, Ruffini "studied 3,312 polls over the last four elections. He found 73% of these overstated Democratic performance compared with the actual results." Hannity said the polls ended up 2.6 points too Democratic on Election Day, on average.
"Now, if this pattern holds this year, then virtually every battleground Senate race is in play. Every one of them," Hannity said.
What the Polling Record Shows
The record shows a pro-Democratic tilt mainly in presidential years.
In midterm years, polls have been closer to the results. Polls for president, governor and Congress in the final three weeks of the 2018 campaign overstated Republicans by 0.5 points on average. In 2022 they overstated Democrats by 0.8 points, according to a Silver Bulletin analysis. In presidential years the misses were larger: 3.0 points toward Democrats in 2016, 4.7 in 2020 and 2.9 in 2024. The same analysis found that polls in the 2025 off-year elections overstated Republicans by 6.1 points.
Average polling bias across presidential, Senate, House and governor polls in the final three weeks before each general election; 2016, 2020 and 2024 were presidential years, 2018 and 2022 midterms. Positive values mean polls overstated Democrats; negative values mean they overstated Republicans.
Source: Silver Bulletin
A miss the size Hannity cited would change the leader in several races. Democrats lead by less than 2.6 points in Maine, Iowa, Kansas and Minnesota in PolitiKool's polling averages. They lead by more in Michigan, Texas, Ohio and Alaska. No miss in the recent record would erase Democrats' 8.1-point lead in PolitiKool's generic-ballot average.
What Happens Next
History is working against Republicans too. Since World War II, the president's party has lost an average of 27 House seats in midterm elections, PolitiFact found.
Other Republicans have voiced similar worries. CPAC Chair Matt Schlapp told Steve Bannon this week that he was "spooked" by GOP slippage in Iowa and Ohio.
Hannity put the outcome on his audience. "I wish I could tell you what the outcome is going to be... that is in your hands," he said.
Sources
- Silver Bulletin: polling bias by cycle — Signed polling bias across presidential, governor and congressional polls in the final three weeks before each general election: 2016 D+3.0, 2018 R+0.5, 2020 D+4.7, 2022 D+0.8, 2024 D+2.9, 2025 R+6.1.
- PolitiFact: Midterm elections — what does history say — The president's party has lost an average of 27 House seats in midterms since World War II.