CPAC Chair Tells Steve Bannon He's 'Spooked' by GOP Slide in Iowa and Ohio

Matt Schlapp, chairman of the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), told Steve Bannon on Tuesday that Iowa and Ohio, two states that turned solidly Republican under Donald Trump, appear to be sliding back toward the political middle four weeks before the midterm elections.

"Look, I'm a little spooked by Iowa and Ohio, 'cause they were the two purple states, purple to light red states, that in the age of Trump became solid red states," Schlapp said on War Room. "And they seem to be reverting back to their previous iteration."

The warning came from one of the conservative movement's best-known organizers, and it was aimed at specific states. Schlapp was upbeat about the overall picture. He said talk of a midterm disaster was overdone: "I don't think it's a pleasant situation, but I think it's improving rapidly." He also predicted that Texas and Florida would hold.

Matt Schlapp Flags Kansas and Nebraska

Schlapp, a Kansas native, extended the concern to two Plains states. "Nebraska and Kansas are Republican states, but they're not necessarily solidly conservative states," he said, adding that he sees them "reverting a little bit back, which bothers me."

He urged supporters there to volunteer for campaigns directly. "No one in DC wants to spend a nickel in these states," he said.

The polling explains the alarm. In the Senate races, PolitiKool's polling average shows Democratic nominee Josh Turek ahead of Rep. Ashley Hinson, the Republican nominee, by 1.7 points in Iowa and former Senator Sherrod Brown leading Senator Jon Husted by 4.2 points in Ohio. Kansas Democratic Senate nominee Adam Hamilton leads Senator Roger Marshall by 1.7 points in Kansas, a seat that polls suggest may flip after more than 90 years without a Democratic win. In Nebraska, Senator Pete Ricketts leads independent Dan Osborn by 0.1 points.

The slippage reaches the governors' races too. Democratic gubernatorial nominee Rob Sand leads by 8.8 points in Iowa and Democratic gubernatorial nominee Amy Acton leads Republican nominee Vivek Ramaswamy by 4.5 points in Ohio, according to PolitiKool's polling averages.

Farm Economy 'in a Recession,' Schlapp Says

Schlapp tied the Plains states' drift to agriculture. "The ag community is in a recession. Fuel prices has killed them," he said. "Your diesel prices and then your fertilizer prices are going through the roof." He also called Argentine beef imports "controversial" among cattle ranchers.

The cost side of that claim holds up. The national average for diesel was $6.199 a gallon on Monday, according to the Energy Information Administration, and $6.286 in the Midwest. USDA expects farm spending on fertilizer to rise 15.3 percent this year and fuel and oil spending to rise 28.8 percent, the American Farm Bureau Federation noted.

The income side is less clear-cut. USDA's September 3 forecast puts 2026 net farm income at $158.4 billion, down 2.6 percent from 2025 and 5.5 percent after inflation, though net cash farm income, forecast at $176.4 billion, is down 2.5 percent after inflation. Federal aid props up the total: direct government payments are forecast at $47.4 billion, according to the Farm Bureau.

Ken Paxton Race Is 'the Most Important,' Schlapp Says

Schlapp's optimism about Texas rests on a pattern he sees in solidly Republican states. "They tend to scare us and then they come home hard," he said.

"I think Ken Paxton is the most important race in the country and he is going to win," Schlapp said of the Texas attorney general, now the Republican Senate nominee.

But he conceded: "We got a lot of ground to make up in Texas, Steve." PolitiKool's polling average shows Democrat James Talarico leading Paxton by 3.6 points. Paxton is underwater with Texas voters to a degree no other Republican Senate nominee in the state has been this century. Schlapp dismissed attacks over Paxton's divorce as "an absurd sideshow in politics."

In Florida, Republican Senator Ashley Moody leads by 6.3 points, according to PolitiKool's polling average.

What Happens Next

The national climate is working against Schlapp's party. Democrats lead PolitiKool's generic ballot average by 8.1 points, and Trump's approval on the economy stands at 29.7 percent in PolitiKool's polling average.

Schlapp's advice was to skip national groups and "go to these campaigns directly," because many races "will come down to less than two points." Whether Iowa, Ohio, Kansas and Nebraska come home the way he expects Texas and Florida to will be clear on November 3.