GOP Has Held Roger Marshall's Seat for Over 100 Years—Polls Show It May Flip

A New York Times/Siena poll released Saturday has Republican Senator Roger Marshall and Democratic nominee Adam Hamilton tied at 45 percent each in Kansas, a state that has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932.

Harry Enten, CNN's chief data analyst, said on CNN that the race may be "a mathematical perfect storm": a president who is deeply unpopular in Kansas, running alongside a Democratic challenger who is unusually well liked.

The tie is one survey. Neither candidate leads. The Times surveyed 605 likely voters from September 22 to 30. PolitiKool's polling average for the race is just as close: Hamilton 45.9 percent, Marshall 45.1 percent.

Why 1932 Matters in Kansas

The last Democrat to win a Senate election in Kansas was George McGill, who won reelection in 1932 and then lost his 1938 race to former Governor Clyde Reed, High Plains Public Radio reported. Republicans have held both of the state's Senate seats ever since, the longest streak of its kind in the country. The seat Marshall holds, the one on the ballot this year, has been in Republican hands since 1919, the longest streak in the country for any single seat, the report said. Hamilton is trying to break it.

Harry Enten Points to Donald Trump's Kansas Numbers

Enten said Trump's net approval in Kansas has fallen from plus 5 at this point in his first term to minus 15 now. The Times poll put Trump's Kansas approval at 40 percent and his disapproval at 55 percent. Nationally, PolitiKool's polling average has Trump at 37.5 percent approval.

Hoover, a Republican, was president when the Great Depression began.

Enten also hedged on the poll itself. He pointed out that on a two-election average, 17 states now vote more Republican than Kansas, up from seven in 2004 and 2008.

Adam Hamilton's Favorability Stands Out

Enten said Hamilton's net favorability of plus 12 was the highest of any candidate the Times tested in key Senate races. The average candidate, he said, was "a point underwater."

The Times found that 39 percent of Kansas voters view Hamilton favorably and 27 percent unfavorably, while Marshall stands at 40 percent favorable and 45 percent unfavorable. Many voters do not yet know enough about Hamilton to have an opinion.

Two Republican former Kansas governors, Bill Graves and Mike Hayden, have endorsed Hamilton, KCTV5 reported.

Money Favors Marshall in Kansas

Marshall has more money in the bank. He reported $5.39 million in cash on hand as of July 15, according to the Federal Election Commission. Hamilton's campaign had raised $4.17 million and held $1.73 million at that point, FEC records show.

The outside money is lopsided as well. The Senate Leadership Fund, the main Republican super PAC for Senate races, has reserved $8.2 million in ads for Marshall, and his campaign has reserved another $2.3 million, KCTV5 reported. Hamilton has reserved about $590,000. The super PAC is moving money into Kansas from North Carolina, where PolitiKool's polling average has Democrat Roy Cooper ahead by 9.8 points.

What To Watch

The question now is whether Hamilton's high favorability lasts once Republican ads start defining him for the many voters who have not yet formed a view. Enten, who recently made a similar case about Ken Paxton's weakness in Texas, described Kansas as a state where the math has turned. The Times poll shows the race tied, a month before Election Day.