Steve Bannon Concedes GOP Faces 'Headwinds' With Texas Hispanic Voters

Steve Bannon conceded on Wednesday that Republicans face real "headwinds" with Hispanic voters in South Texas, saying the gains the party built up there through 2024 are no longer paying off the way they did.

The admission, made on his War Room show, came in an episode that was otherwise devoted to rallying the MAGA base to vote. Bannon argued that Republicans can hold the House if Trump voters show up. He asked his guest what it would take to win two South Texas districts, the 15th and 34th.

What Steve Bannon Said About Texas Hispanic Voters

Bannon raised the two South Texas districts with his guest, Republican strategist Alex deGrasse, a longtime adviser to Elise Stefanik, Yahoo News reported. He said the issue for Hispanic voters there is the economy, not immigration, and then turned to the problem.

"So in Texas 15 and 34, given the headwinds of the, with the Hispanic community, and they're definitely headwinds, no doubt. It's not like 24 when we've done all that work for those years and it was paying off," Bannon said.

He added that the down-ballot candidates would get little help from above: "Plus the fact you got top of the ticket pressure, right? Or lack of coattails."

Bannon said the statewide races looked thin as well, "with Abbott and Paxton looking like they may have low single digit victories," and contrasted that with candidates who "have always depended upon a Trump coming in and winning about 14 points." Trump carried Texas by about 14 points in 2024, 56.2 percent to 42.4 percent, CBS News reported. Abbott won reelection in 2022 by about 11 points, KXAN reported. The two benchmarks are for different offices in different years. Bannon put the Abbott figure higher than that 2022 margin, at "Abbott by 15 or 16."

What Texas Polls Show

Bannon's own picture may be generous to his side. Abbott leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa by 1.1 points in PolitiKool's polling average. Ken Paxton, the GOP Senate nominee, trails Democrat James Talarico by 3.6 points in PolitiKool's polling average.

Earlier in the episode, Bannon brushed off a poll showing "somebody's up six points. I think Talarico, one of these guys, it's not happening."

Recent polling suggests Republicans have lost ground with Hispanic voters, though the available measures are not directly comparable. Trump won 53 percent of Latino men and 48 percent of Latina women in Texas in 2024, ABC13 reported. A Mason-Dixon poll of 401 Hispanic likely voters, taken Sept. 8-12 with a margin of error of ±5 points, measured different races and did not split results by gender. Among those voters, Talarico led Paxton 54 percent to 36 percent and Hinojosa led Abbott 52 percent to 39 percent, NBC News reported. In a separate Mason-Dixon sample of 625 Texas likely voters, taken Sept. 8-10 with a margin of error of ±4 points, Abbott led Hinojosa 48 percent to 41 percent and Talarico led Paxton 46 percent to 43 percent.

South Texas House Seat Rated a Toss-Up

The Cook Political Report has moved Texas' 15th District, held by Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz, from "Lean Republican" to "Toss Up." Trump carried the redrawn district by 18 points in 2024, the San Antonio Current reported. Her Democratic challenger is Tejano singer Bobby Pulido.

Bannon said the coattail problem reaches beyond Texas: "Like in Pennsylvania, Shapiro is gonna win by a big number as a governor, right? In Ohio, you've got issues in the governor's race. Husted is under pressure and they may pull it out, but they're not gonna be in coattails."

Governor Josh Shapiro leads by 22.1 points in PolitiKool's polling average. Husted is on the Ohio Senate ballot, where he trails Democrat Sherrod Brown by 4.2 points in PolitiKool's polling average.

Bannon Still Calls the House Holdable

Bannon told viewers that "if we bring out the Trump base, we got this, but we gotta bring out the Trump base," and he credited GOP redistricting with keeping the House competitive.

His guest made the more upbeat claims. On Florida's mail ballots, deGrasse said, "We're running 2% better than ever, okay?" He also said Republicans have "always outperformed all these polls by I think an average of six percentage points in the Midwest." He did not name a source for either figure.

What Happens Next

Early voting in Texas runs Oct. 19-30, and Election Day is Nov. 3. Bannon's plan is to turn out the base: he asked each viewer to handwrite a list of 10 Republican voters and check that every one of them votes.

The South Texas seats will test whether that is enough. They are the same seats where Republicans spent years building gains with Hispanic voters, and Bannon now admits those gains are under strain.