Sean Hannity Warns Republican Early Vote Is 'Not Where It Needs to Be'

Sean Hannity told his radio audience on Tuesday that Republican early-vote turnout is lagging, one week before the November 3 midterms, and said plainly that he does not know how the election will turn out.

The Fox News host gave the warning while urging listeners to vote. He also said, more than once, that he does not trust the polls. That makes it a turnout warning, not a prediction of defeat. But it is a candid assessment, and it comes as early-vote data shows Democrats ahead in the share of ballots cast.

"Look, I'm just going to be straightforward with you. I don't know how this is going to turn out," Hannity said. "I am concerned a little bit about Republican turnout up to this point, granted the advantage for early voting always goes with Democrats."

Near the end of the segment, he put it more bluntly.

"So I'm not liking the polls. However, I don't trust the polls and, but they, they, you know, every indication is our early vote turnout is not where it needs to be right now." — Sean Hannity

What the Early Vote Data Shows

The numbers back up his worry, with the caveat he offered himself. Nearly 33 million people had voted early as of Tuesday afternoon. In the 27 states where voters register by party, registered Democrats accounted for about 45 percent of early ballots and registered Republicans for about 31 percent, according to University of Florida Election Lab data reported by Time.

That gap does not settle anything. Registration does not show how anyone voted, and Republicans lean toward voting on Election Day itself: a post-2024 Pew survey found that nearly 40 percent of registered Republicans voted in person on Election Day, compared with 28 percent of Democrats, Time reported. Michael McDonald, the University of Florida political scientist who runs the Election Lab, told Time that early-vote readings gain weight over time: "Once you start seeing consistency across multiple days of voting and across multiple states, it starts giving us more confidence."

Hannity's guest earlier in the hour, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, was more upbeat. Bessent said President Donald Trump "is energizing the base wherever the president goes. We see Republican early voting go up."

Hannity's Senate Map and the House

He listed Maine, New Hampshire, Michigan, Iowa, Ohio, Texas, Kansas, Mississippi, Nebraska and Alaska, and said: "These states all need massive conservative and Republican and MAGA turnout to win."

In eight of those ten states, a Democrat or independent leads in PolitiKool's Senate polling averages, though several leads are within a point. Nebraska Republican Senator Pete Ricketts is ahead of independent Dan Osborn by 0.1 points, and Mississippi Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith leads by 6.2. Democrats lead by 0.4 points in Iowa and 0.6 in Kansas. New Hampshire Democrat Chris Pappas has the widest lead, 6.8 points over Republican John E. Sununu.

On the House, Hannity said: "I really don't have a feel for the House. I don't think anyone else does. Certainly based on historical trends, it would be advantage Democrat, unless everybody does their part."

The historical pattern is real. Since 1946, the president's party has lost an average of 25 House seats in midterms, and 37 when the president's approval rating was below 50 percent, Gallup found. Trump's approval stands at 37.6 percent in PolitiKool's polling average, and Democrats lead by 8.5 points in PolitiKool's generic-ballot average.

The Primaries Hannity Cited

To explain his distrust of polling, Hannity pointed to two Democratic primaries: "El-Sayed was supposed to win by 20 points, barely won by a point. Francesca Hong was supposed to win by between 20 and 30 points and then she lost her race by 3,000 votes."

The broad point holds, but the details are off. Abdul El-Sayed led Representative Haley Stevens by 15 points in an Emerson College poll published July 31, then won the August 4 Michigan Senate primary by less than two points. Hong's race was in Wisconsin, not Michigan, which Hannity had mentioned just before her. Marquette Law School polling showed the state representative with a strong lead before Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley beat her in the August 11 primary for governor by about 3,000 votes.

A Pitch to Wavering Republicans

Hannity also spoke to conservatives who might stay home. "I'm worried that there are people for reason A or B or C that are sitting it out," he said.

Later, he told those voters: "Maybe you don't like everything about President Trump. Maybe. Okay, compare it to what the DSA agenda is," referring to the Democratic Socialists of America.

Hannity said he had already voted in Florida. His message to everyone else was that there is a week left. Whether that is enough to close the early-vote gap will not be clear until the Election Day ballots are counted.