Sean Hannity Admits No Feel for the Midterms Amid Fears of Low GOP Turnout

Sean Hannity told listeners on Monday that he has no clear sense of how the midterm elections will turn out. It was an unusually uncertain assessment from one of Donald Trump's most reliable allies in the media, 15 days before voters go to the polls.

The Fox News host broadcast his radio show from Michigan ahead of a town hall there. He called the race "the single most important midterm election in our lifetime" and returned several times to the same worry: that Republican voters who show up for Trump will skip a year when he is not on the ballot.

"I cannot tell you what's going to happen in 15 days," Hannity said. "... I'm where I have been stuck now for the last pretty much hundred days."

Hannity Rejects an 'Inevitable' Blue Tsunami

Hannity said the case for a Democratic wave can be made. He also said he does not accept it.

"I can make a case that would show you a blue tsunami. Like the media would like to, like to cause you to believe is, is inevitable. I don't believe that." — Sean Hannity

He pointed to the polls instead. "If past polling is any indicator of future results, then just the opposite would happen because the polls have been so atrocious in past years," he said, adding, "I've never seen it as bad as this year."

He was candid that he was making two arguments at the same time. "I'm also on the other hand telling you don't, don't trust the polls. I mean, I'm speaking out of both sides of my mouth and I'm doing it by design," Hannity said.

His bottom line was blunter. "Usually I have a better feel than I do now, but I just don't have one," he said.

Turnout Worries for Republicans

The most consistent thread in the episode was turnout. Hannity said "the base that hates Donald Trump, they're kind of energized, they're motivated," and warned that "there are some people that only want to vote in presidential election years." He added, "that frightens me a little bit."

Later, he said Republicans "could have a good night" if every listener assumed their own vote would decide the outcome. "But I can make a case that we won't, that a lot of people are not paying enough attention," he said.

Other voices on the right have raised the same concern. Steve Bannon has admitted that the Iran war has upset MAGA voters, and Senator Ted Cruz has warned Republicans could end up with 45 Senate seats.

What the Primary Polls Showed

Hannity's evidence that the polls are broken came from two Democratic primaries in August. Speaking of Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan's Senate primary, he said, "he's supposed to win by 20 points. He could barely win by a point."

The miss was real, though Hannity overstated its size. El-Sayed beat Representative Haley Stevens by about 1 point on August 4, Bridge Michigan reported. The final Emerson College poll, conducted July 26-27, had him ahead 54 percent to 39 percent, a 15-point lead.

Hannity said the same thing happened with Francesca Hong in Wisconsin. Hong lost the August 11 Democratic primary for governor to David Crowley by less than half a point. The final Marquette Law School poll had shown Hong at 38 percent and Crowley at 7 percent, with 34 percent undecided. The poll's director attributed the miss to that large undecided bloc and to a late endorsement of Crowley by Governor Tony Evers, WMTV reported. (Crowley dropped out of the race and later re-entered it.)

Both misses happened in Democratic primaries, and in both the progressive candidate was the one polls overestimated. Neither involved Republicans.

What the Polling Averages Show

The numbers Hannity distrusts favor Democrats right now. PolitiKool's polling average of the generic congressional ballot has Democrats at 48.9 percent and Republicans at 40.6 percent, a lead of 8.3 points. PolitiKool's Senate polling average rates control of the chamber a toss-up, with seven toss-up races.

In Michigan, where Hannity was broadcasting, El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers by 3.4 points in PolitiKool's polling average. In Minnesota, which Hannity singled out as a Republican opportunity, Democrat Peggy Flanagan leads Michele Tafoya by 3.8 points in PolitiKool's polling average.

What Happens Next

Election Day is November 3. Hannity told his audience not to treat any race as decided. "Assume that your vote will decide the outcome of any race that matters to you," he said.

Hannity did not predict how it would end. "There is no one real indicator that can, that can define how, how the results are going to come out in this race," he said.