Ted Cruz Warns Republicans Could Wake Up in January With 45 Senate Seats

Senator Ted Cruz of Texas told listeners of his Verdict podcast on Monday that Republicans could lose every close Senate race on the map and "wake up in January with 45 Republicans in the Senate." He framed it as the worst case and used it to push conservatives to vote in the last two weeks of the midterm campaign.

The warning came as early voting opened in Texas. Cruz said he would spend the stretch campaigning there and in North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Michigan and Kansas. He had just come back from 24 hours in Alaska with Senator Dan Sullivan, a Republican running against former Representative Mary Peltola, a Democrat. Cruz said that race was also close: "The polling shows that race basically tied."

Ted Cruz Lays Out the Best and Worst Senate Outcomes

Cruz said "there are eight to 10 Senate races across the country that are basically tied, that are all within the margin of error," and then described both ends of the range.

"We could have a great election night. We could end up winning all eight to 10, we could actually end up picking up three or four Senate seats," he said. He named Michigan, New Hampshire and Minnesota as pickup chances and added that "we have a shot at Georgia," though he conceded: "Georgia, the numbers are rougher."

"So we could have a great night, but we could also have a terrible night. Those eight to 10 seats, we could lose them all. And we could wake up in January with 45 Republicans in the Senate." — Ted Cruz

"I hope and pray that won't happen. I don't know if it will," Cruz said, adding that he was "devoting every waking moment to fighting to prevent that."

He was making a turnout pitch, not a prediction. that leads to a disaster." His co-host, conservative radio host Ben Ferguson, said Republicans appeared to be "closing the gap with Democrats who are in the lead."

What the Senate Polling Averages Show

Republicans hold 53 seats. Democrats hold 45, and two independents caucus with them, according to the Senate's party division records. Dropping to 45 would be a net loss of eight seats and would give Democrats a 55-seat majority. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control, because Vice President JD Vance breaks 50-50 ties.

PolitiKool's polling average currently looks a lot like Cruz's bad night. Challengers lead in eight Republican-held seats: Alaska, North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, Texas, Iowa, Kansas and Idaho. In Idaho, independent Todd Achilles is running against Senator Jim Risch. Republicans do not lead in any Democratic-held seat.

"Basically tied" is a fair description of some of those races. Idaho is within 0.2 points, Iowa within 0.8, Kansas within 1.8 and Maine within 2.5. Others are not close. Democrat Roy Cooper leads by 10.6 points in North Carolina.

The four pickups Cruz named all lean the other way. Democrats lead by 3.4 points in Michigan, 3.8 in Minnesota and 7.3 in New Hampshire. In Georgia, the state Cruz called "rougher," Senator Jon Ossoff leads by 9.9 points, the widest gap of the four. An AARP poll in August did find Michigan within a point.

Cruz said the races are "all within the margin of error." Leads this narrow, including in Alaska, where Peltola leads by 3.8, could still go either way.

Ted Cruz's Momentum Claim and the Record

In Alaska, the race has moved toward Democrats. Sullivan led Peltola 47 percent to 45 percent in a New York Times/Siena poll released July 1, and Peltola is now ahead in the average.

Over the summer, ratings moved the same direction. The Cook Political Report moved Iowa from Lean Republican to Toss-up in August and called the Texas race a dead heat, Bloomberg Government reported. Cruz has called his home state's race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton a dead heat. Talarico leads by 3.4 points in the Texas average.

The national numbers look similar. Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot by 8.1 points, and President Donald Trump's approval rating is 38 percent in PolitiKool's polling average.

Cruz's worry about conservatives staying home is one other Republicans share. War Room host Steve Bannon said last week that war-weary Trump voters could stay home.

What to Watch Before Election Day

The range still goes both ways. Republicans hold narrow leads in Nebraska, where Senator Pete Ricketts is 0.8 points ahead of independent Dan Osborn, and in South Carolina, where Senator Lindsey Graham leads by 2.2.

Republicans can lose a net three seats and keep the chamber. Election Day is November 3, and Cruz said turnout will decide which of his two scenarios comes true.