Steve Bannon Admits Iran War Has Upset MAGA Voters as House Losses Loom

Steve Bannon said on Thursday that "the war," which he did not name but which in context was the Iran conflict, is the issue most dividing MAGA voters. Less than three weeks before the midterms, he also said Democrats are talking about gaining as many as 20 House seats.

The host of War Room made the point while describing how races were tightening around the country. He said races were tightening as the "gravitational pull of Republicans and MAGA voters" operated, "some of whom are very upset about certain elements, particularly the biggest bone of contention is the war."

This was a concession, not a break with Donald Trump. Bannon praised the president for taking his case to the base and said the real risk is Trump voters staying home on November 3, not Trump voters switching sides.

Steve Bannon on the Iran War and the MAGA Base

Bannon said Trump was still making the case for the war, putting the president's argument this way: "Hey, I had to take out the nuclear weapon. That's my focus. That's what I did."

Later in the show, he said Trump was the best person "to explain to once again to the MAGA base his rationale for this war, which I think has been very helpful."

"A lot of people don't agree with it. Some people vehemently disagree with it, but at least he's engaging in that," Bannon said.

The remarks follow Bannon's warning earlier this week that war-weary Trump voters could stay home or turn. He had also said the Middle East war was "metastasizing" and had to end.

What the Iran War Polling Shows

Polls back up Bannon's description of a base that still supports the war but is less enthusiastic about it. A Pew Research Center survey taken September 28 to October 4 found 63 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents approved of Trump's handling of the conflict. That was down from 69 percent in March. Among all adults, approval fell from 37 percent to 33 percent, and 65 percent disapproved.

An I&I/TIPP poll taken September 29 to October 1 asked a different question, about support for military action against Iran rather than approval of Trump's handling of it, and found 71 percent of self-identified Republicans in favor.

Trump's overall standing is weaker still. His approval rating is 38 percent, with 59.1 percent disapproving, according to PolitiKool's polling average.

Democrats Eye House Gains

"I think the range people are talking about is anywhere from nine to 20 seats," Bannon said of Democratic hopes in the House. "Now the key, the purpose of the exercise is to get that nine, nine down to under four, right?"

"It's not impossible," he added. He called it a tough march, given what he described as some less-than-stellar Republican candidates.

Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot by 8.1 points, 48.2 percent to 40.1 percent, in PolitiKool's polling average.

Steve Bannon Says Nonvoters Are the Risk

Bannon argued that the danger for Republicans is turnout, not defections. He said he did not see a large group of independents, moderate Democrats or young people who backed Trump in 2024 now voting against him.

"They're just not coming out to vote," he said. "And the composition of your electorate is very different in midterm elections than in general presidential cycles."

The record of the last midterm supports his focus on turnout. In a Pew Research Center study of validated voters, Republican gains in 2022 came mostly from differences in which party's voters showed up, not from people switching parties. Among 2018 voters, 95 percent of Republican House voters and 92 percent of Democratic House voters backed their party's candidate again in 2022. That year, 71 percent of Trump's 2020 voters turned out.

What Happens Next

Trump held rallies on Wednesday in Bullhead City, Arizona, and Kalispell, Montana. Bannon said Trump would hold a rally in Georgia on Friday and one in northern Kentucky on Saturday, and he expected more short "airport rallies" in House districts before Election Day.

Whether those stops bring back voters who are unhappy about the war is the question Bannon left open.