Sean Hannity Says Hormuz Oil Is at Pre-War Levels; Ex-Obama Official Says 60%

Sean Hannity told former Obama administration official Ravi Gupta on Friday that Iran is not blocking the Strait of Hormuz and that oil is back to pre-war levels. Gupta, who co-founded the Democratic training group Arena, put the figure closer to 60 percent. Reported flow data falls between the two claims.

The exchange on The Sean Hannity Show came 32 days before the midterm elections. The Iran war and the fuel prices that followed it have become a liability for Republicans, and Hannity was defending the war's record.

Sean Hannity and Ravi Gupta Clash Over Iran

The argument started when Hannity pressed Gupta on Michigan's Senate race. Gupta said he would vote for the Democrat, Abdul El-Sayed, "because I think this Iran war is a disaster." Hannity replied that "the world is safer because Donald Trump is preventing Iran from getting a nuclear weapon."

Gupta argued that Tehran had "discovered a source of leverage they didn't have before, which is their ability to block the Strait of Hormuz."

Hannity rejected that.

"No, they're not blocking the Strait of Hormuz. We're back to pre-war levels in terms of the oil getting through, starting with the Southern Lane and a new lane that they opened up. So that's not true." — Sean Hannity

Gupta answered: "Well, this morning I thought it was about 60% of pre-war levels. And I think one of the reasons why we'd be fairly certain that that impact is hitting us at home is looking at the prices of diesel and gas." Neither man gave a source. Hannity then moved the conversation to the Democratic Socialists of America.

What Hormuz Shipping Data Shows

The Wall Street Journal reported on Sept. 29 that Gulf oil exports through Hormuz and alternative routes had recovered to nearly 80 percent of pre-war regional flows.

That is short of the pre-war levels Hannity described and well above the 60 percent Gupta cited. The figure covers the alternative routes as well as the strait itself.

Gas and Diesel Prices Since the War Began

U.S. pump prices are still well above where they were before the war. In the week of Feb. 23, days before U.S. forces began combat operations against Iran on Feb. 28, regular gasoline averaged $2.937 a gallon and diesel averaged $3.809, according to Energy Information Administration figures reported by Argus.

As of Monday, the EIA's weekly survey put regular gasoline at $4.465 and diesel at $6.382. That is an increase of about 52 percent for gasoline and about two-thirds for diesel. PolitiKool's gas price tracker puts the national average for regular at $4.46 a gallon.

Iran War Polling Before the Midterms

Those prices are now weighing on Republican candidates. A Reuters/Ipsos poll completed Sept. 20 found that 34 percent of Americans approved of the strikes on Iran and 17 percent approved of President Donald Trump's handling of the cost of living. Trump's overall approval in that poll was 32 percent, the lowest of his career.

Republican support is also slipping. In CNN/SSRS polling, Republican approval of the war fell from 73 percent in March to 60 percent in the survey conducted Sept. 16-17, Time reported.

Trump's approval stands at 37.7 percent in PolitiKool's polling average. His approval on the economy is lower, at 29.7 percent in PolitiKool's polling average.

What Comes Next

Gulf oil flows, counting alternative routes, have recovered toward pre-war levels, but U.S. pump prices remain well above where they stood in February. Whether they come down before Nov. 3 is still open.