Democrats are making huge gains in Trump country. The battleground states are a different story.

Democrats are posting unexpectedly strong numbers in some of the most Republican states heading into the November midterms, yet they have not pulled ahead in the traditional battlegrounds. Senate contests in Alaska, Kansas, Nebraska and Mississippi are polling far closer than Donald Trump's 2024 margins there of 13, 16, 21 and 23 points would suggest. By contrast, Senate races in New Hampshire, Maine and Michigan, which Kamala Harris won by three points, won by seven and lost by roughly half a point, remain within a few points. Analyst Charlie Cook calls the pattern a "red undertow": voters broadly rejecting Trump and his party without necessarily embracing Democrats, according to MS NOW.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries pointed to broken Republican promises on costs, Medicaid and a new Middle East war. Republican Sen. Mike Rounds told MS NOW that affordability, livestock and tariffs are hurting the party in Midwestern states. Trump's approval hit a term low of 38. 7 percent, according to Real Clear Politics.

Republicans must now spend in places that once seemed safe, with Trump set to rally in Nebraska, where Sen. Pete Ricketts faces independent Dan Osborn, and Vice President JD Vance having campaigned in Kansas for Sen. Roger Marshall.

Summarized by PolitiKool from MS NOW’s reporting. Read the full story at MS NOW →