Democrats hold midterm lead with independents breaking sharply against Trump

Democratic congressional candidates hold a wide lead over Republicans in a new poll from PBS News, NPR and Marist, with independents breaking sharply against President Donald Trump, who is not on the ballot. Among registered voters, 53% say they would back Democratic candidates if the election were held today, compared with 41% for Republicans, and independents favor Democrats by 25 points. About 7 in 10 voters said Trump is a factor in their congressional vote, while 30% said he is not, according to PBS NewsHour.

Trump has urged Republicans to treat the midterms as a referendum on him, banking on his base turning out; 71% of MAGA supporters said their congressional vote is mostly a vote for him. But the poll suggests that strategy may be backfiring: 45% of all registered voters and 54% of independents said their vote will mainly express opposition to Trump, compared with 24% of voters and 12% of independents motivated by support for him. Marist pollster Lee Miringoff said Democrats are "sitting in a very good place." Trump's approval stood at 39%, with 59% disapproving and 53% saying they strongly disapprove, the highest share Marist has recorded across either of his terms.

Voters overall are highly engaged, with independents the least engaged of the groups measured, at 30% following the race very closely. Democratic strategist Joel Payne called independents' opposition to Trump "devastating" for Republicans. Republican strategist Melik Abdul said the numbers are worrying Republicans privately and compared Trump to Icarus, the figure from Greek mythology.

Summarized by PolitiKool from PBS NewsHour’s reporting. Read the full story at PBS NewsHour →