Early vote analysis: Mail ballot concerns are changing how Democrats vote

Democrats are asking for fewer mail ballots this fall but sending back the ones they do get sooner, an NBC News Decision Desk analysis done with the University of Pennsylvania finds. The pattern, visible less than four weeks before Election Day, could make early voting totals a shakier guide to which party is more energized, and might alter the lopsided early counts that have marked recent election nights.

The analysis points to worry about the Postal Service. President Donald Trump has long attacked mail voting, and his administration tightened its hold on the agency. The Postal Service then adopted new rules, at Trump's direction, governing how officials mail ballots to voters. The Supreme Court blocked them, so they will not apply this year. A Marist poll in September put Democrats' confidence in on-time delivery at 60%, down from 86% before the 2024 election, while Republicans' confidence held steady.

In North Carolina, requests fell 40% among Democrats versus 18% among Republicans compared with 2022, and 22% of requested Democratic ballots were already back, up from 17%. Georgia showed the same direction. Virginia, which has substantial early in-person voting, saw gains in strongly pro-Harris precincts and a drop in strongly pro-Trump ones.

Summarized by PolitiKool from NBC News’s reporting. Read the full story at NBC News →