How Democrats could win the House, how the GOP could hang on, and where to look for a wave

Democrats are favored to win the House in November, according to an NBC News Decision Desk analysis, though Republicans retain realistic paths to keeping control. Voter dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump and worries about affordability help Democrats, while a redistricting push left most Republican-held seats in districts Trump carried by double digits in 2024.

The analysts measure the national swing from 2024, when Trump won the popular vote by 1.5 points. Polling averages show likely voters preferring Democratic House control 52% to 43%, a 10.5-point swing that would deliver 238 Democratic seats, three more than in 2018. Redrawn seats held by Marcy Kaptur in Ohio, Kathy Castor in Florida and Henry Cuellar in Texas would become tight; Republican Tano Tijerina is challenging Cuellar, but the race is rated lean Democratic.

Polls may overstate Democratic support. Reweighting the latest poll to resemble the older, whiter 2022 electorate cuts the Democratic lead to 4 points, a 5.5-point swing and a 220-215 Democratic majority. Republicans would hold on with a swing near 4.5 points, or if some of their candidates beat the national trend.

Summarized by PolitiKool from NBC News’s reporting. Read the full story at NBC News →