Interactive graphic: Road to a House majority

NBC News Decision Desk analysts Stephen Pettigrew and John Lapinski say Democrats are well positioned to take the House of Representatives, though the size of any majority is uncertain. A Republican hold is described as unlikely but not out of the question.

The chamber is currently split with 219 Republicans, 214 Democrats and two vacancies. That means Democrats would need a net gain of only three seats to take control. The more important question, according to the analysts, is how comfortable a margin they would have.

Two factors could limit the Democratic upside even in a favorable climate. First, most of the competitive races are in states and districts that President Donald Trump carried in 2024. Second, Republicans sought to protect their built-in edge by redrawing district lines last year.

The final seat count will largely track how far the national electorate swings relative to 2024. Under a scenario in which every one of the 435 districts moves 4.6 percentage points toward Democrats, the party would end up with 218 seats, giving it a majority of a single seat. Larger shifts would produce a bigger cushion, while a smaller one could let Republicans cling to power.

Summarized by PolitiKool from NBC News’s reporting. Read the full story at NBC News →