Poll: Likely voters favor Democrats as Trump disapproval drives early turnout

A new PBS News/NPR/Marist poll puts Democrats 8 points ahead among likely voters in congressional races a week before Election Day, and their supporters sound more eager to show up. Independents lean toward the party by 13 points. Enthusiasm is very high for 71% of Democrats, compared with 61% of Republicans and 48% of independents, according to PBS NewsHour.

Early voting may already have helped them. The University of Florida Election Lab counts more than 30 million ballots cast nationwide, and roughly 1 in 5 poll respondents say they have voted, favoring Democrats 68% to 31%. Republicans are leaning on Election Day itself: half of their likely voters plan to vote in person on Nov. 3, versus 31% of Democrats.

President Donald Trump's standing looms over the race: 59% of likely voters disapprove of him and 40% approve. Marist Institute for Public Opinion director Lee Miringoff called it unusual for a president so underwater to say he is on the ballot. In the poll, 44% describe their congressional vote as chiefly opposition to Trump, and 21% as support. Republican strategist Melik Abdul expects the GOP to hold the Senate.

Summarized by PolitiKool from PBS NewsHour’s reporting. Read the full story at PBS NewsHour →