The most important US midterm trends I’m seeing

Republicans are entering the 2026 midterms in a weak position, according to Guardian columnist Molly Jong-Fast, who describes Democrats as holding roughly a nine-point advantage and competing even in conservative territory. She says Donald Trump's attempts to reshape elections, such as a mail-in voting plan the Supreme Court blocked, have not rescued his party. Her chief worry is public anger that neither party takes seriously enough, according to The Guardian.

Matt Dunlap, a Maine congressional candidate, hears about home heating fuel, while Bobby Pulido, running in Texas's 15th District, hears about grocery-store beef prices near $7 per pound. Jong-Fast also highlights union-connected moderates endorsed by both Blue Dogs and Bernie Sanders, including Bob Brooks, Rebecca Cooke, Sam Forstag and Brian Poindexter, who frame the contest as ordinary people against those above them.

Iowa, which Trump carried by 13.2 points in 2024, is competitive partly because of its high cancer rate. In Kansas, Senator Roger Marshall faced jeers at a debate against Adam Hamilton, and the Cook Political Report moved the race to lean Republican. Vance has asked voters for patience, while Matt Gaetz urged turnout by invoking culture-war attacks.

Summarized by PolitiKool from The Guardian’s reporting. Read the full story at The Guardian →