The Republican with the most on the line this Election Day isn’t on the ballot

Republicans expect heavy losses in the November midterms, and MS NOW analyst Matthew Bartlett argues the person with the most at stake is Vice President JD Vance, who is not on the ballot. One House Republican told MS NOW the party will be crushed, with the only open matter being the margin. The top Senate Republican super PAC has left North Carolina and shifted money to Kansas. President Donald Trump's approval has sunk to the mid-30s, Democrats' generic ballot lead is growing, the Iran war is stalled, prices stay high, and some 2024 Trump voters have defected.

Bartlett compares the situation to the late George W. Bush years, when a second Democratic wave followed the 2006 midterms and carried Barack Obama to the presidency in 2008. Despite Trump's weak numbers, the loyal base that will dominate the 2028 Republican primary appears to have settled on Vance. Marco Rubio has long signaled he will not challenge him, and other floated names, including Ted Cruz and Rick Scott, poll poorly.

Summarized by PolitiKool from MS NOW’s reporting. Read the full story at MS NOW →