JD Vance Frames Ohio Vote as Donald Trump Policies or Joe Biden Inflation

Vice President JD Vance is asking Ohio voters to treat the midterms as a choice between President Donald Trump's economic policies and the inflation of Joe Biden's presidency. In the same answer he conceded that the administration still has "a lot of work to do" on prices.

Vance made the pitch in remarks in Lima, Ohio, in a clip posted by independent journalist Aaron Rupar. He was in the city Friday for a Republican midterm rally at Allen County Regional Airport.

"We've made a lot of progress," Vance said. "Inflation is way lower today than it was when we took office, it's way lower today than at the peak of the Biden administration. But there's still a lot of work to do."

He then put the question to voters directly.

"Do you want to double down on the policies that have the ship moving in the right direction? Or do you want to go back to the policies that had the worst inflation prices in 50 years in the United States of America?" — JD Vance

"I think the choice is obvious, but obviously it's up to the voters to make that decision," he said.

What the Inflation Data Shows

Part of Vance's claim holds up and part does not. Inflation is far below its Biden-era peak. Consumer prices rose 9.1 percent in the 12 months ending June 2022, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. That was the largest annual increase since November 1981, so a little over 40 years rather than 50.

But inflation is not lower than when the administration took office. The annual rate was 3 percent in January 2025, the month Trump was sworn in. It eased to 2.7 percent by December 2025, then climbed again to 3.4 percent in August, the latest month available.

Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, was 2.4 percent. Gas now averages $4.35 a gallon nationally.

Voters Trust Democrats More on Cost of Living

Vance's framing comes as Republicans have been losing ground on the issue he is campaigning on. A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted July 29 to August 3 found that 35 percent of Americans preferred Democrats' handling of the cost of living and 27 percent preferred Republicans'. In January the two parties were roughly even, at 32 percent and 31 percent.

The same poll put Trump's approval at 22 percent on inflation and 23 percent on the cost of living. Forty-eight percent of respondents said the cost of living would be their most important factor in the midterms.

Trump's broader economic numbers are also weak. PolitiKool's polling average puts his approval on the economy at 29.7 percent, with 67.9 percent disapproving. His overall approval average is 37.4 percent.

Ohio Races in Play

The pitch also matters closer to home for Vance. His former Senate seat is on the ballot. Republican Senator Jon Husted, who now holds the seat, faces former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown. Brown leads by 4.2 points in PolitiKool's polling average for the Ohio Senate race.

In the governor's race, Democrat Amy Acton leads Republican Vivek Ramaswamy by 4.6 points in PolitiKool's Ohio governor average. Republicans are also worried about other states that turned solidly red under Trump. CPAC chair Matt Schlapp recently told Steve Bannon he was "spooked" by the GOP slide in Ohio and Iowa.

Nationally, Democrats lead by 8.1 points in PolitiKool's generic ballot average.

What Happens Next

Republicans' argument depends on voters comparing today's prices with 2022's, not with January 2025. The September inflation report is the next test. A Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland nowcast projects the annual rate rising to about 3.6 percent, with Election Day less than four weeks away.