Top pollster Nate Silver makes major update to how he sees the midterm elections unfolding

Democrats have strengthened their position in the battle for control of Congress ahead of next Tuesday's midterms, according to forecaster Nate Silver, who now puts their odds of winning the Senate at 79 percent, compared with 75 percent before. He cited a run of strong polls in individual races and said on The Argument YouTube show that the figure sits slightly above prediction markets but that he is comfortable with it. On his Substack, he warned that Democratic leads in Texas, Ohio, Alaska and Maine could vanish with a normal-sized polling miss. He still sees Democrats as strong favorites to win back the House, according to The Independent.

CNN's Harry Enten reached a similar conclusion, saying Democrats are projected at 223 House seats, above the 218 needed for a majority.

The vote is widely seen as a verdict on the Trump administration, whose approval ratings have fallen to historic lows amid the war in Iran and public frustration over living costs. Politico reports that Republicans are preparing for a rough night, with one senior strategist saying losses tend to snowball once they begin. About 40 million Americans have already voted. President Donald Trump has called unfavorable polls "fake."

Summarized by PolitiKool from The Independent’s reporting. Read the full story at The Independent →