Trump and his allies credit deportations with record low crime. Experts disagree

The Trump administration is crediting its immigration crackdown for the sharp national decline in homicides, a message the White House is pushing harder as the midterm elections near. At the United Nations General Assembly, President Donald Trump said a secure border produced the largest drop in violent crime ever recorded. Vice President JD Vance made a similar case at an Iowa rally, and Gun Owners of America vice president Erich Pratt has also tied safer streets to deportation priorities rather than gun laws, according to The Guardian.

Experts say the evidence does not support the link. Research finds no relationship between immigrants, documented or not, and homicide rates, and the decline began in 2023 under President Joe Biden. Researchers point to several possible causes, including fading pandemic stress and violence-prevention funding. University of Colorado law professor Pratheepan Gulasekaram called the claim specious but said it resonates because of existing xenophobia.

Federal figures also cut against the narrative. Over 75% of people newly placed in deportation proceedings had no criminal convictions, and just 34 of more than 18,400 ICE arrests since 2025 involved a homicide conviction.

Summarized by PolitiKool from The Guardian’s reporting. Read the full story at The Guardian →