Trump wants control of South America. If Bolsonaro Jr wins in Brazil, that could become a reality

Brazil's presidential election this weekend could hand Donald Trump a major prize in South America. Flávio Bolsonaro, whose father Jair Bolsonaro led the country before him, is locked in a tight contest with the sitting leftist, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. A Bolsonaro win would extend a rightward shift in which seven right or far-right candidates have taken presidencies across Latin America over 18 months, many with Trump's open support, according to The Guardian.

Washington has tried to shape the Brazilian race. Officials and allies of Trump first worked to keep Jair Bolsonaro out of prison after investigators found he led a conspiracy, with seven allies, to remain in power after losing in 2022, including a plan to kill Lula. Trump threatened a 50% tariff in July 2025, but Bolsonaro was convicted and sentenced to 27 years, and Lula gained in the polls. This July Trump imposed a 25% rate on some goods, and Brazil refused visas to two State Department officials sent to examine electoral integrity.

Elsewhere, US influence appears to have mattered little: candidates in Peru and Chile avoided seeking his endorsement, and Bolivia's Mas government won just 3.16% after 20 years in power.

Summarized by PolitiKool from The Guardian’s reporting. Read the full story at The Guardian →