U.S. Midterms Loom Over a Deadlock Between Trump and Tehran

Iran is stepping up attacks on ships near the Strait of Hormuz, betting that rising energy prices will weaken President Donald Trump politically and make a new American military campaign too expensive to consider, Time reports. The midterm elections fall on Nov. 3, and Trump has said he will not strike Iran before then, which Tehran appears to read as confirmation of its theory. After nine months of war, though, more fighting seems unlikely to settle anything, and negotiation will eventually be unavoidable.

The calculation may be flawed. Trump could decide that looking helpless amid Iranian-driven price increases costs him more than additional strikes, and his administration has reportedly weighed them. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose bloc is struggling ahead of an Oct. 27 election and who has built his reputation on stopping Iran, might also favor renewed force. After the midterms, Trump's self-imposed restraint disappears, and fear of a surprise attack could push Tehran to hit first.

The core standoff persists. Washington wants a nuclear deal and expects its blockade to force talks; Tehran demands economic relief and an end to the war first.

Summarized by PolitiKool from Time’s reporting. Read the full story at Time →