Voters of Color Were ‘Driving Force’ Behind Midterm Rout, Say Key Strategists

Voters of color powered the Democratic sweep in Tuesday's midterm elections, according to a memo from party strategists Tom Bonier and Simon Rosenberg that Time obtained. They contend the lopsided result could not have happened without Hispanic and Black voters, who both turned out heavily and moved back toward Democrats compared with the 2024 presidential race. Every major demographic group did shift left, repudiating President Donald Trump, and the authors say Democrats are on pace for their biggest midterm popular vote margin since 1974, though the final House tally will take weeks.

A New York Times analysis put the leftward movement from 2024 at 28 points among Hispanic voters, 17 among Asian American voters and nine among Black voters. Early-vote data analyzed by Bonier and Rosenberg showed Hispanic turnout already beating 2022 levels. In Webb County, Texas, the Hispanic vote swung 50 points away from Republicans when Trump's 2024 result is compared with James Talarico's Senate win. The memo attributes much of that to Trump voters switching sides.

The findings bear on the 2028 field and on the Democratic National Committee's choice to put South Carolina first in its primary calendar.

Summarized by PolitiKool from Time’s reporting. Read the full story at Time →